The IMF has warned of rising uncertainty around the global oil shock and its potential impact on Asia. Deputy Director Thomas Helbling said the base case assumes a short-lived energy shock easing in the second half of 2026. However, adverse scenarios suggest oil prices could remain elevated through 2026 or even into 2027, posing serious risks to growth across Asian economies. The region remains particularly vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on Middle East energy supplies and high energy intensity, with oil and gas accounting for nearly 4% of GDP. While strong exports and supportive financial conditions are offering some cushion, a prolonged conflict could trigger supply disruptions, higher inflation, and slower economic growth across the region.