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COVID-19 situation in India a warning for other low, middle-income countries: IMF

The ongoing catastrophic second wave in India, following a terrible wave in Brazil, is a sign that the worst may be yet to come in the developing world, an IMF report mentions

twitter-logoBusinessToday.In | May 22, 2021 | Updated 13:47 IST
COVID-19 situation in India a warning for other low, middle-income countries: IMF
The report notes that India's healthcare system sustained fairly well during the first wave of the pandemic but was overwhelmed during the second wave

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the COVID-19 situation in India is a warning sign of what could happen in low-income and middle-income countries that have been spared from the worst of the pandemic till now.

A discussion note published on Friday, co-authored by the IMF and its Chief Economist Gita Gopinath and staff economist Ruchir Agarwal, stated that under the business-as-usual scenario, India's vaccine coverage is expected to remain limited at under 35 per cent by the end of 2021.

"The ongoing catastrophic second wave in India, following a terrible wave in Brazil, is a sign that the worst may be yet to come in the developing world," the report mentions.

The report notes that India's healthcare system sustained fairly well during the first wave of the pandemic but was overwhelmed during the second wave leading to many people dying due to a shortage of medical supplies such as oxygen, hospital beds, etc.

"India is a warning of possible events in other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that so far have seemingly escaped the pandemic, including in Africa," the report further noted.

It also mentioned that current bilateral purchases of vaccine along with coverage from COVAX will cover about 25 per cent of India's population by the first half of 2022.

To get to 60 per cent coverage, India will need to immediately place sufficient vaccine orders of about 1 billion doses through contracts that incentivise investment in additional capacity and augmentation of the supply chain.

"In this context, the authorities' recently announced financing of about $600 million to the Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech to boost production capacity in the near term is a welcome step," the report said, adding that authorities estimate that two billion doses will be available by the end of 2021.

Efforts should be made to ensure that the projected production capacity will materialise without delay, including through securing the supply chain for raw materials-supported by international efforts to eliminate export restrictions on all critical inputs, it added.

In its report, the IMF said that an urgent focus should be to eliminate constraints on cross-border exports of critical raw materials and finished vaccines. The free cross-border flow of vaccine inputs and supplies is essential for the world to achieve its vaccination targets without delay.

Governments are taking steps to relax such constraints on raw materials, it said, citing a recent pledge by the US to facilitate greater access of critical raw material to Indian manufacturers after severe shortages emerged.

However, there is scope for greater multilateral action on this front, as significant constraints still remain, it said.

The IMF report said India continues to face production bottlenecks, including due to ongoing shortages of critical raw materials, suggesting the need for further relaxation of de facto export restrictions under the US Defence Production Act.

Despite such near-term constraints, as of mid-May 2021, the authorities estimate that over two billion doses will be available by the end of the year based on company-level supply projections publicly shared by officials.

"Therefore, while current pre-purchases of vaccines plus coverage from the COVAX AMC remains around 25 per cent, the authorities intend to meet the residual needs through the additional production," it said.

To reach a coverage of 60 per cent of the population, India will need to order roughly one billion doses of additional vaccines.

"Given the authorities are expected to comfortably use domestic resources to meet these residual needs and are not seeking external financing for these purposes, we do not allocate additional funds for India in our budgeting exercise," the IMF said.

Indian authorities are currently pursuing a strategy of procuring vaccines for those above 45 years of age by the central government while enabling states to procure vaccines for those aged 18-44.

Given the current vaccine pricing offered by domestic suppliers and the estimated size of the younger population in India, the additional funding needed for the centre to cover the 18-44 population is approximately 0.25 per cent of GDP, suggesting that there is scope for the government to handle the entire procurement centrally, it said.

Also Read: COVID-19 second wave: India loses 420 doctors so far; Delhi, Bihar, UP report most deaths: IMA

Also Read: COVID-19 second wave: India loses 269 doctors so far; Bihar, UP, Delhi report most casualties

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