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Crisil revises GDP forecast upward to 8.6%

Its revision - from and earlier 8.2 per cent - came on a day when the government said growth rate could cross 9 per cent in the current financial year itself.

twitter-logo PTI   New Delhi     Last Updated: December 8, 2010  | 12:54 IST

On a day when the government revised its economic growth forecast to 8.75 per cent for the current financial year, ratings firm Crisil also said the country's gross domestic forecasr (GDP) is likely to grow by 8.6 per cent, up from its previous expectation of 8.2 per cent.

"Crisil has revised India's growth forecast upwards to 8.6 per cent for 2010-11 in view of the economy's strong performance in the first two quarters of 2010-11, as shown by the recent CSO release," the ratings agency said in a statement.

Crisil has earlier put its growth forecast for the country during this year at 8.2 per cent.

Its revision came on a day when the government said the growth rate could cross 9 per cent in the current financial year itself and revert to the pre-crisis levels.

In its Mid-year Economic Analysis, the government estimated that growth in 2010-11 will be 8.75 per cent with 0.35 per cent variation on either side.

Having grown by over 9 per cent in three years in a row, the economic growth rate slipped to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 on account of global financial meltdown.

The growth rate, however, picked up to 7.4 per cent in 2009-10 as a result of stimulus provided by the government and the Reserve Bank of India.

Crisil said during 2010-11, growth in agriculture is likely to grow by five per cent, while industry and services are expected to register an increase of 8.6 and 9.4 per cent, respectively.

According to it, robust farm production this year is aiding recovery and also reining in inflation.

"We have upgraded our GDP growth forecast to 8.6 per cent for 2010-11, based on our expectations of 8.4 per cent growth in private consumption. The internal rebalancing of growth in India now seems to be complete," Crisil Chief Economist D K Joshi said.

The agency, however, said industrial growth is expected to decelerate to 7.3 per cent in the second half from 10.1 per cent in the first half of 2010-11.

"Despite this, the average industrial growth for the year, at 8.6 per cent, will remain above the long-term trend," it said, adding the current account deficit (CAD) forecast has been raised to 3.3 per cent of the GDP for 2010-11.

Regarding inflation, the ratings agency said fall in food inflation will pull down the overall inflation to 6 per cent by March 2011.

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