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IMF's 4.9 pc GDP projection not reasonable: Montek Singh Ahluwalia

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has said the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) growth forecast of 4.9 per cent for India during 2012 has a statistical problem.

BT Online Bureau   New Delhi     Last Updated: October 16, 2012  | 15:52 IST

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has said the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) growth forecast of 4.9 per cent for India during 2012 has a statistical problem.

Ahluwalia said he did not think 4.9 per cent projection is reasonable for 2012, as in the first half, the the country's economy is estimated to have grown by 5.5 per cent.

"I think, it is the result of a bit of statistical problem," he said on the sidelines of 4th OECD World Forum in reply to a question on the recent economic growth projection for India by the world body.

According to the government data, the country's GDP grew by 5.5 per cent in the April-June quarter. The data for the second quarter spanning from July to September will be available by end-November.

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"This (4.9 per cent GDP growth projection) would mean that the economy will further decelerate. I doubt it will. I don't think that IMF was aware of the fact that there was this little difference. They just took the GDP at market prices. There is a big difference between GDP at market price and GDP at factor cost", Ahluwalia said.

IMF calculates GDP at market prices whereas Indian agencies do it on factor cost. The GDP at market prices include indirect taxes which is not the case in factor cost.

On sequential basis, the GDP growth in April-June quarter was higher than 5.3 per cent recorded in preceding quarter of January-March this year.

With inputs from PTI

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