India's decision to unlock the world's longest coronavirus-induced lockdown in a phased-manner might turn detrimental in the upcoming days. According to Japanese financial research firm, Nomura, India has been listed among 15 countries where relaxing the lockdown could result in an increase in the cases of coronavirus infection more rapidly. And, in extreme cases, it could lead to the situation of re-locking.
Nomura said it has developed a visual tool to assess the risk of a COVID-19 second wave as economies reopen. For research, Nomura conducted a study on 10 US states and 45 major economies.Nomura has taken into account case trajectories and mobility trends to determine the impact of post-lockdown.
The research divided 45 countries into three groups: those 'on track', facing 'warning signs', and 'danger zone'.
In our latest report, we develop a visual tool which helps assess the risk of a second wave of #Covid19 in 45 major economies as they start to reopen. Who is on track to recovery and who is at most risk? Find out here: https://t.co/fi4MwesXzE. pic.twitter.com/8KCfo0139X- Nomura (@Nomura) June 9, 2020
In the 'danger zone', that is countries that are most at risk of a second wave of coronavirus infection are-India, Pakistan, Singapore, Sweden, Indonesia, Mexico, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, South Africa, Chile, and Ecuador.
According to Nomura, Australia, Japan, Israel, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, South Korea, France, Thailand, and 8 others were on track, that is, showing no signs of the second wave of coronavirus.
The US, UK, Germany, and 10 others have received a tentative warning sign of revival of the COVID-19 infection.
Nomura has said that there were two potential scenarios that could unfold post-lockdown-good and bad.
In a good scenario, coronavirus-related cases will decline, businesses will resume operations, resulting in ease in public fear and a further increase in people's mobility.
However, in a bad scenario, the COVID cases might accelerate daily, which will then result in growing public fear, and in an extreme case, lockdowns would be reimposed.
Recently, the World Health Organisation (WHO)'s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also urged countries to strengthen their efforts to contain the deadly virus, noting that the pandemic was worsening globally.
So far, more than 73 lakh people have got infected from coronavirus around the world, and 414,147 people have died from it.
India has reported 2.76 lakh cases of COVID-19, including 1.33 lakh active cases, 1.35 cured, and 7,745 deaths, as of June 10.