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Top ten risks of 2010

While the worst of the recession seems behind us now, 2010 brings with it fresh challenges for the world economy.

Print Edition: March 7, 2010

The year 2009 was marked by unprecedented economic turbulence. While the worst of the recession seems behind us now, 2010 brings with it fresh challenges for the world economy. In a recent report, research and consulting firm Eurasia Group has identified key geopolitical risks for global investors, business leaders and market participants.


CLIMATE CHANGE: Failure to establish clear goals at Copenhagen complicates investment decisionmaking — from renewable energy to commodity price forecasting.

US FINANCIAL REGULATION: Financial regulatory reform would be the litmus test for US President Barack Obama.

JAPAN: Political instability in Japan will make it that much tougher to combat a grave economic situation — particularly given Japan's extraordinary fiscal constraints.

EUROPEAN FISCAL DIVERGENCE: Policymakers are struggling to adapt domestic politics to the more pressing public financing challenges.

BRAZIL: Brazil's challenges loom greatest in the oil sector in 2010. The government does not want the global community to profit from the country's vast new oil frontier.

INDIA-PAKISTAN: India-Pakistan relations have deteriorated which will concern potential investors in the subcontintent.

EASTERN EUROPE: High levels of unemployment are worrying. Governments could also come into conflict with monetary authorities and lenders.

TURKEY: Turkey's international orientation is moving away from Europe and closer to Iran and Syria. It will worry the US and its allies.

US-CHINA RELATIONS: There could be a stand-off between US and China over reform of regulatory framework for international trade.

IRAN: It faces a considerably tougher sanctions regime over its nuclear programme which is clearly a significant long-term negative for global stability.

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