As efforts begin to salvage a deal from the Doha Round of WTO trade talks, experts say the first task is to break the deadlock around farm safeguards that were the stumbling block in the latest, unsuccessful round of negotiations in Geneva recently.
Pointing out the pluses, Lamy said that the deal will result in worldwide duty cuts of $150 billion (Rs 6,45,000 crore) a year of which two-thirds are expected from the rich nations. “This will help developing nations to gain market access,” said Lamy. He also warned that if the WTO talks don’t result in a deal, US agricultural subsidies could see a sharp jump to over $48 billion (Rs 2,06,400 crore) a year from a ceiling of $14.5 billion (Rs 62,350 crore), which the Bush administration had offered at the Geneva Mini-Ministerial Meeting.
Is the Doha Round dead? No one can be sure at this point.
Adds Rajesh Chadha, Chief Economist, National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER): “There is a broad consensus on how to open up trade in industrial goods. However, agriculture has become the lynchpin of the agenda for both developing and developed countries. The deal has entered a make-orbreak phase where any further delays may prove to be corrosive for the global economy.”
Experts think Lamy’s visit is another attempt to evolve a consensus between the rich and the poor nations on the thorny issues of cutting agricultural subsidies and industrial tariffs. The negotiations collapsed in Geneva over disagreements between the US and India over a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM), which is designed to protect farmers in the developing world against surges in cut-price imports of cotton and rice. The US refused to agree to India’s proposal that developing nations should be allowed to hike duties by 25 per cent on farm products if imports surged 15 per cent, and insisted that additional duties should be imposed only if imports surged 40 per cent.
Chadha feels the rich countries should compromise on certain agenda points and work out some formula to protect the livelihoods of millions of subsistence farmers in developing countries such as India and China. “The future of the Doha Round is not clear at this stage. What is clear is that we must continue to bolster the multilateral trading system. If the deal goes through within the prescribed time, it will be a win-win situation for everyone,” he adds.
Whether the Doha Round concludes by the end of the year is not certain, but Lamy’s visit to India clearly shows that the WTO talks are not dead.