The fortnight’s burning question. Will the inflation rate come down to less than 8 per cent in Q2, 2008-09?
No. Siddhartha Roy, Economic Advisor, Tata Group
It may be optimistic to expect the inflation rate to come down to that level over the short term. But if the monsoon is normal as forecast, food prices should start falling by September-October and the impact will be felt only by November. So, the inflation rate may come down over the medium term.
Maybe. Amit Mitra, Secretary General, FICCI
The effect of global crude oil prices will continue to be felt. But with the Met projecting a better-thannormal monsoon, prices of agricultural commodities should see a decline in the months ahead. If we are able to check the prices of industrial inputs and raw materials, then inflation may well come down to 8 per cent by the end of the second quarter of 2008-09.
No. Deepak Mohoni, Managing Director, Trendwatch India
It is highly unlikely that inflation will come down to less than 8 per cent by the next quarter. Even if crude oil prices come down to $100 per barrel, the government may not reduce fuel prices. So, I don’t think prices of food items will come down anytime soon. As a result, I don’t see inflation falling to the level indicated in this question.
—Compiled by Manu Kaushik