The Reserve Bank of India says above normal rainfall and increased sowing activity in rural areas are expected to ease the pressure on food prices.
Above normal rainfall and increased sowing activity in rural areas are expected to ease the pressure on food prices, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The apex bank estimated the kharif (monsoon) season foodgrain production in 2010- 11 would be 10.4 per cent higher that of the previous year at 114.6 million (mn) tonnes, mainly due to above normal rainfall. Due to 26 per cent below normal rainfall during the kharif season last year, foodgrain production was capped at 103.8 mn tonnes.
" Good monsoon during June- September 2010 was reflected in better kharif sowing. Latest sowing position … as on October 22, 2010, was 99 per cent of the normal level against 92.6 per cent last year. Kharif sowing under foodgrain was 95.5 per cent of normal area against 88.8 per cent during the corresponding period last year," RBI said in a study.
The First Advance Estimates of the RBI estimated increased production across all crops, namely, foodgrains and its subcategories of coarse cereals and pulses, with growth rates of 10.4 per cent, 19.5 per cent and 39.5 per cent, respectively.
"Increased production has been estimated across all sub-categories of foodgrain, total oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane," RBI added.
However, the apex bank did not specify how much of food price inflation would ease in the coming months, due to good monsoon this fiscal.
Citing its own foodgrain production weighted index (PRN), RBI said that the rainfall during south- west monsoon 2010 was two per cent below normal as against 26 per cent in the previous year. Based on this index, RBI has arrived at the growth figure of 10.4 per cent in foodgrain production during this year's kharif season.
PRN is constructed based on the weighted average of actual rainfall received by the states where weights are taken as the average share of foodgrain production by a particular state in the overall foodgrain production.
The south- west monsoon during June- September 2010 had crossed the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) long period average (LPA) by two per cent, the second highest level attained in the last one decade, as against a deficient rainfall of 22 per cent during June- September 2009.
Kharif output to be 10.4% more than last year LPA is the average rainfall of 89 cm seen during 1941-1990.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, cumulative rainfall was excess/ normal in 31 subdivisions and deficient/ scanty/ no rain in five.
The positions of spatial distribution during the corresponding period last year were 13 and 23 sub- divisions, respectively. The cumulative seasonal rainfall from June 1 to September 30, 2010 was excess in 14 meteorological subdivisions (43 per cent of the total area of the country) and normal in 17 meteorological subdivisions (42 per cent of the total area of the country). Five subdivisions (East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Assam and Meghalaya) constituting 15 per cent of the total area of the country received deficient rainfall.
Higher reservoir levels across the country are also expected to support the crops till their harvest.
As on September 30, 2010 water stock (storage to live capacity) in these 81 major reservoirs was 75 per cent of the full reservoir level (FRL) as against 60 per cent during the corresponding period last year.
The average storage to live capacity during the last ten years was 66 per cent. The FRL of these 81 major reservoirs is 151.77 billion cubic metres (BCM) and these account for around 67 per cent of the total reservoir capacity of the country.
Courtesy: Mail Today