The Monsoon will be below normal this year and the western India is likely to experience a deficient rainfall, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, said today.
El Nino- a phenomenon associated with warming of Pacific waters- is being attributed as one of the main reasons behind a possibly weak monsoon this year.
Weather Risk, another private forecasting agency has predicted an El Nino event this year and said it is likely to have a negative impact on the southwest monsoon during the later part of the monsoon period.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its monsoon forecast next month.
First half of the monsoon period might see better rainfall than the later half, Jatin Singh, the CEO of Skymet, said.
Regions like Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below average rainfall while east India, especially Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season.
"Evolving El Niño may start affecting the monsoon performance July onward. Nevertheless, presence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could help in tempering the adverse impact of El Niño," he said.
A positive IOD is associated with cooling of Indian Ocean waters, which has an impact on the monsoon.
The Skymet said pre-monsoon rains would be less during April that would eventually lead to intense heating of the land mass.
"Pre-Monsoon activities may pick up pace during May," Singh said.