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Reliance Industries stock falls after Jefferies cuts target price

BusinessToday.In     August 30, 2018

The Reliance Industries stock fell for the second consecutive session in trade today on profit-booking at record high levels. Sentiment became bearish around the stock after global brokerage Jefferies retained its underperform rating on Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) after the stock's recent record run.

Jefferies has given a target price of Rs 880, a downside of nearly 32% from the current levels. At 10:56 am, the Reliance Industries stock was trading 1.12% or 15 points lower at 1,280 level.

The stock which opened at 1,300 level hit an intra day low of 1,272 level on the BSE. The Reliance Industries stock hit a 52-week high of 1,328.75 on BSE in yesterday's trade but closed lower at 1,294 level on profit-booking.

The stock has been losing for two days and has fallen 3.13% during the same period. It has gained 63.71% during the last one year and has risen 39% since the beginning of this year.

Reliance Industries has a beta of 1.28 with the Sensex.

Here's a look at why Jefferies cut target price of the stock.

  • The brokerage says, "Reliance Industries' capital spend trends should also be sobering too with net liability trending higher than most expect."
  • Jefferies expects Reliance Industries gross refining margins to ease from highs of the 2017-18 financial year as refining demand supply becomes less benign. The gross refining margin (GRM) of the company fell to $10.5 a barrel from $11.9 a barrel in the first quarter of the last financial year.
  • "Lower crude throughout due to planned turnaround of one crude distillation unit and softer refining margins led to decline in segment EBIT. Refining and marketing performance was also impacted by higher flat price and adverse movement in Brent-Dubai differentials on Y-o-Y basis," the company said.
  • Jefferies cast doubts on Reliance Jio and said the expansion of Reliance Industries' telecom business may be bumpier than what the Street is acknowledging. Capital expenditure may halve from FY14-FY16 but could stay elevated, said Jefferies. Telecom capital expenditure will continue and exploration and production spend will pick up, added Jefferies.
  • The return ratios remain modest and net debt higher, the foreign brokerage said.
  • The Reliance Industries stock is valued at 12.5 times FY19 estimated EV/EBITDA-which is 30-35% higher than its past and 30-70% more than its peers, the brokerage said.
The firm last week became the first Indian company to cross the Rs 8 lakh crore market capitalisation mark, racing ahead of Tata Sons' crown jewel TCS by more than Rs 20,000 crore in valuation. The market valuation of oil-to-telecom conglomerate crossed the $100-billion mark last month. A few days later, its m-cap surged past Rs 7 lakh crore, making it the second company after IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services to achieve the coveted milestone. TCS had crossed the $100 billion milestone on April 23, 2018.

28 of 37 brokerages rate the stock "buy" or 'outperform', four "hold" and five "underperform" or "sell", according to analysts' recommendations tracked by Reuters.

Reliance Industries reported its highest ever quarterly net profit for the quarter ending June 2018 as bumper earnings from the retail business, improved profitability of telecom arm and near doubling of earnings from petrochemical business offset lower margins from oil refining business.

Consolidated net profit of Rs 9,459 crore, or Rs 16 per share, in April-June, was 17.9 per cent higher than Rs 8,021 crore, or Rs 13.5 a share, in the same period of previous fiscal, the oil-to-telecom conglomerate said in a statement. Revenue was up 56.5 per cent at Rs 141,699 crore.

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