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Modi I vs Manmohan I: How many times did Sensex hit all-time high?

Mudit Kapoor and Chitranjan Kumar     May 22, 2019

Sensex has hit an all-time intra-day high 118 times since May 26, 2014, when Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India. The rally was driven mostly by domestic as well as foreign investors.  Domestic institutional investors poured in Rs 3.85 lakh crore into Indian equity market while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) invested Rs 2.11 lakh crore in the past five years.

In comparison, Sensex hit an all-time high 245 times under Manmohan Singh's United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-I administration of 2004-09.

Comparatively, Sensex delivered a 180 per cent return during Manmohan-I as compared to 51 per cent under Modi-I.

But, the Sensex achieved some important milestones during the Modi regime. It crossed 25,000 level when Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister on May 26, 2014. In the last five years, Sensex has rallied 14,396 points from 25,175 to 39,571 (Tuesday's intra-day). And there could be some more good news if Modi gets re-elected.

According to market experts, the BSE Sensex may cross the psychological level of 40,000 if Modi-led BJP government manages to win 300 seats out of the total 543 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

As per India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll, the NDA will win around 339-365 seats, while the Congress party will be reduced to 77-108 seats.

"If BJP clinches 300 seats or more than the current regimen will continue and that will provide certainty for business community about the policies to continue. Impact on Sensex from this result will be positive and it may hit 40,000 due to euphoria, on the declaration of result or even on exit poll results," Romesh Tiwari, Head of Research, CapitalAim said.

Riding high on exit poll predictions, the Sensex hit an all-time high of 39,571 in intra-day trade on May 21, surpassing its previous record high of 39,487 on April 18 this year. It logged highest single-day gain of 1,421 points in last ten years on May 20 after exit polls predicted BJP-led NDA would win 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

According to Jayant Manglik, President - Retail Distribution, Religare Broking, "The key focus for market participants throughout this week would be on election outcome. The markets are pricing in a clear victory for the NDA government and hence any disappointment on the result day could lead to correction."

Notwithstanding the near term rally, the markets could consolidate in the medium term as focus would shift back to fundamentals (corporate earnings) and global cues such as trade tensions between US and China, he added.  

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