Ind-Ra revises India's FY21 GDP growth forecast to -11.8%
BusinessToday.In September 8, 2020
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) on Tuesday revised the country's FY21 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast, further lowering it to (-) 11.8 per cent from (-) 5.3 per cent earlier.
The domestic rating agency, however, expects India's GDP to rebound and expand at 9.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in FY22 primarily owing to the weak base of FY21.
It further added that the previous lowest was (-) 5.2 per cent in FY80. The agency stated that the (-) 24 per cent growth in the April-June (Q1) quarter of FY21 was the first contraction in quarterly GDP data, the worst fall in the last 40 years.
Ind-Ra also estimates the economic loss in FY21 to be Rs 18.44 lakh crore.
"India Ratings' FY21 GDP growth forecast of negative 11.8 per cent will be the lowest GDP growth in Indian history (GDP data is available from FY-1951) and sixth instance of economic contraction, others being in FY-1958, FY-1966, FY-1967, FY-1973 and FY-1980," the rating agency said in a report.
According to Ind-Ra, the retail and wholesale inflation is expected to come in at 5.1 per cent and negative 1.7 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings on Tuesday also further lowered its forecast for India's GDP (gross domestic product) growth for FY21, projecting a 10.5 per cent contraction in the economy from an earlier estimate of 5 per cent shrinkage in the same period.
India's GDP contracted by 24 per cent year-on-year amid the imposition of coronavirus-induced nationwide lockdown.