- Apple Car might not arrive until 2025-2027 according to Ming-Chi Kuo.
- Kuo has said that Apple could take more time and the launch could even happen in 2028 or later.
- Apple has a lot of catching up to do with companies like Tesla and Waymo in the autonomous vehicle industry.
Apple Car, the ambitious self-driving vehicle project from the iPhone maker, resurfaced earlier this month when a Reuters report said Apple will begin production sometime in 2024. Apple is reportedly said to be working on a new mono-cell battery that will be groundbreaking in the history of electric vehicles. Now, renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has said the Apple Car might not arrive until 2027 and there is even a possibility that its launch would be pushed back to 2028 or later. Despite predicting the market is "too bullish about Apple Car," Kuo is citing three reasons why the delay will happen.
According to Kuo, the Apple Car could not arrive by 2027 or even 2028 because there is no certainty on its launch timing right now, the specifications and supplier information is scarce, and finally, it is unclear how competitive Apple thinks it would become in the EV and self-driving vehicle market. Currently, there are several automobile brands competing in this space. The entry of Apple will be interesting but it could make buyers wary because the iPhone maker will be new to this industry. And more importantly, Apple will take to finesse the product that is expected to grab hundreds of eyeballs when it launches.
Previously, Kuo had predicted that Apple Car would launch between 2023 and 2025 but his prediction has changed after the Reuters report brought the latest development to light. In his note, Kuo has said that even if the development on the Apple Car begins this year and continues as expected, it will still take Apple more than four years, pushing the launch to somewhere between 2025 and 2027. However, considering Apple's standards for its products and the pace at which the EV and the self-driving industry is changing, Kuo said he "would not be surprised" if the launch gets pushed back to 2028 or even later.
Apple Car specifications will take a lot of time to become final. Kuo has said the final specifications of the Apple Car might not be set until 2023-2025. Apart from Kuo, Reuters and analysts at Morgan Stanley have said that the production of the Apple Car could very well start in 2025 or so forth, giving the iPhone maker about four years from now.
Even if Apple decides on the final specifications of Apple Car and begins the development as being predicted, the success of the EV or self-driving car from Apple is uncertain right now. According to Kuo, despite Apple's strengths at coming up with solutions for every issue that might crop up in the production process, Apple has not always been successful with its products. Kuo cites the example of HomePod, the Siri-powered smart speaker from Apple that has not been able to match market expectations. Rivals Amazon and Google are flourishing in the smart speaker market with their offerings. Kuo has even said that Apple has suspended the development of its next smart speaker.
And finally, Apple has a long way to go in the field of research and development that goes into making an autonomous vehicle. Kuo has said Apple is five or more years behind the companies such as Tesla, Alphabet's Waymo, and others in terms of deep learning technology. This makes sense since all these companies began working on self-driving vehicle projects way too early and now they are slowly getting to the mainline markets. Apple has a lot to do before it makes a mark in this industry.