Elections in India are unlikely to kick-start investment cycle in a short period of time as against popular perception that a new government led by BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi could immediately revive the markets and economy, says a Credit Suisse report.
"We disagree with the consensus view that elections can revive the investment cycle. Only a fourth of projects are stuck with the central government, and two-thirds of these are in power and steel, both suffering massive overcapacity," the research report says.
According to the global financial services major, there can be four scenarios post elections , Narendra Modi -led NDA government with 2-3 allies; Narendra Modi led NDA government with 5-6 allies; other leader led NDA government with 8-10 allies or Third Front government supported by Congress.
In the first scenario, the rally in the market is likely to continue (assuming supportive global cues) "for 2-3 months till market participants realise Government's inability to drive rapid changes and 1QFY15 results temper optimism," the report said.
In the second case, there is likely to be a temporary lull in the market (flows-wise) till a post-poll alliance gets stitched up and given Modi at the helm, sentiments are likely to remain positive.
In case of other leader led NDA government, markets are expected to take negatively to "No-Modi" at the Centre and a potentially unstable government and in the Fourth case there would be "unwinding of the beta rally as apprehension of a rating downgrade emerges."
According to the global brokerage major, new government is not likely to revive investment in the power generation for two reasons: (1) overcapacity and lack of power distribution reform; and (2) slow growth in coal production.
Going forward there can be three distinct phases in the market: (1) the run-up to the election results; (2) the three month period after elections; and (3) the period till the year-end.
Opinion polls currently project more than 220 seat verdict for BJP led alliance.
"Such a verdict would fuel a continuation of the rally in cyclicals," Credit Suisse said adding that a less than 180 seat verdict for BJP led alliance is likely to cause a major market correction".
With better earnings revisions and growth than most other EMs, as well as declining inflation, India looks relatively more attractive than other emerging markets, Credit Suisse said.