Can India save its investment-grade status? : News Reel: Business Today
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Can India save its investment-grade status?

Anand Adhikari | June 8, 2021

The second covid wave has already impacted the pace of economic recovery as seen from the GDP downgrades by the Reserve Bank of India, global rating agencies, and other global institutions. Given the widening fiscal deficit and higher public debt, there is now a threat of a sovereign rating downgrade if another Covid wave hits the economy. The risk of a downgrade comes from a slowing growth momentum, widening fiscal deficit, higher inflationary pressure, and a stressed banking sector. The RBI's ability to pump in another liquidity bonanza like 8 per cent of GDP in the first pandemic year 20-21 is also not possible. The current fiscal deficit at 9.3 per cent of GDP for 20-21 is one of the highest in recent decades. The banking sector has entered the crisis with 8 per cent gross NPAs Post the second wave, the real stress in banks, NBFCs, and other entities are hidden because of regulatory forbearances especially loan moratorium, govt guarantees, and one-time loan restructuring. There is a lot on the government's shoulders to avoid a rating downgrade as it would have serious implications.

Also Read: World Bank cuts India's FY22 GDP growth forecast to 8.3% from 11.2%

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