Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
UN experts now say there’s a 70% chance Earth will cross 1.5°C by 2029. That once-hopeful Paris Agreement line? It’s no longer a guardrail—it’s fast becoming a statistic.
The WMO warns that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will likely be the hottest ever recorded—breaking 2024’s blistering global heat record with room to spare.
With global warming already at 1.44°C, climatologists predict we’ll hit 1.5°C permanently by 2027–2030. A decade ago, this scenario was dismissed. Now it’s practically a forecast.
What was once “impossible” is now on the table: there’s a 1% chance of breaching 2°C by 2029. Met Office scientists call it “shocking.” That probability is only going up.
From deadly winds in Pakistan to 50°C heat in the UAE, the chaos isn’t abstract. Wildfires, floods, and killer heatwaves are already showing what’s at stake—today, not tomorrow.
“Sticking with oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is lunacy,” says climate scientist Friederike Otto. Experts agree: we’re sprinting toward a cliff and accelerating our fossil fuel addiction.
The poles are unraveling fast. The Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas will lose more ice through 2029—triggering ripple effects in weather, wildlife, and global sea levels.
Northern Europe and Siberia may get wetter; the Amazon, drier. Climate change isn’t just about temperature—it’s about upending centuries of seasonal and regional balance.
From insurance shocks to lost crops and collapsing fisheries, every degree we warm hits the global economy harder. “Our lives, ecosystems, and livelihoods are all at stake,” the WMO says.