Produced by: Manoj Kumar
A future Yellowstone eruption is now predicted to center in the park’s northeast. Scientists say magma is actively heated in this region, unlike the western side, where it’s beginning to cool and solidify.
Despite its fiery reputation, Yellowstone is unlikely to erupt for hundreds of thousands of years. “Any such eruption is expected to take place far in the future,” said Ninfa Bennington, a volcano seismologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
Published in Nature on January 1, 2024, a groundbreaking study reveals that Yellowstone’s magma isn’t a single, vast reservoir. Instead, it exists in four separate chambers, some of which are closer to eruption conditions than others.
Using magnetotellurics, scientists detected hidden magma pockets by measuring magnetic fields. Unlike older earthquake wave studies, this method provides a more accurate view of Yellowstone’s underground activity.
Near Sour Creek Dome, magma touches hot mantle rock, keeping it in a liquid state. Meanwhile, magma under Yellowstone’s western region lacks this heat source, making it more likely to cool into solid rock.
Yellowstone has erupted three times in the last 2.8 million years, with its most recent super-eruption occurring 640,000 years ago. The newly detected magma volume surpasses that of previous explosive events, but eruption conditions are not yet met.
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Magma sits like water in a sponge, trapped in rock pores. For an eruption, at least 40% of these pores must be filled with liquid magma. Current estimates place the fraction at only 20%, far from triggering an explosive event.
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Over tens of thousands of years, mantle heat could gradually increase the magma’s mobility. If the northeastern magma pockets remain in contact with these heat sources, conditions could shift toward eruption in the distant future.
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Scientists remain unsure whether the magma will reach eruptive levels before its heat source fades. Yellowstone’s future hinges on these deep, unseen interactions—a slow-motion process shaping the park’s explosive potential.