Produced by: Manoj Kumar
Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. While the risk remains low, scientists are closely monitoring its trajectory to refine impact estimates.
Ground-based telescopes from the International Asteroid Warning Network will track the asteroid until April before it becomes too faint. Observations will resume in 2028 when YR4 reappears.
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NASA’s James Webb Telescope will study the asteroid in March 2025, measuring its size, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide, which will help improve risk analysis.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies uses Sentry, an automated system, to track YR4’s path. Impact risk could either increase or be ruled out as new data becomes available.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is rated -0.32 on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale, placing it below background risk but requiring ongoing observation due to its close proximity to Earth.
With a Torino Scale rating of 3, the asteroid poses a localized hazard but is unlikely to cause global damage. This classification highlights the need for continued monitoring.
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A Torino Scale score of 3 indicates potential localized consequences from an impact, prompting scientists to gather more data to refine its trajectory and mitigate public concern.
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The Palermo Scale rating suggests YR4’s risk remains below average, yet doubling its impact probability to 2.3% has increased interest among researchers and planetary defense experts.
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NASA and global partners emphasize that further observations are essential. The possibility of YR4 becoming a higher threat underscores the importance of ongoing asteroid defense strategies.
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