Produced by: Tarun Mishra Designed by: Manoj Kumar
Astronomers have calculated that asteroid Apophis, known as the “God of Chaos,” will come within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth on April 13, 2029, raising concerns due to its proximity. This distance is close enough to pass within the orbits of some satellites.
A recent study, led by Paul Wiegert at Western University, estimates the risk of Apophis colliding with Earth in 2029 at more than one-in-a-billion, though this minuscule risk can’t be entirely dismissed until more data is collected.
Apophis measures roughly 1,100 feet (340 meters) across — similar in size to the Eiffel Tower. While not large enough to trigger global extinction, it could devastate a large city and create significant climate disruptions if it impacted Earth.
Researchers highlight the possibility that collisions with smaller, undetected asteroids could alter Apophis’ trajectory, potentially shifting it onto a collision path with Earth. Such deflections are rare, but their effects could change the asteroid’s course slightly.
Wiegert and his team used computer simulations to estimate the chance of Apophis being hit by a smaller asteroid, concluding that the likelihood of a course-changing impact is under one-in-a-million. Even if it were hit, a trajectory shift toward Earth remains extremely unlikely.
Credit :NASA
Due to Apophis’ current position near the sun, it is out of view from Earth-based telescopes. Astronomers will have to wait until 2027 for a clearer look to refine predictions of its course and any deflection risk for its 2029 flyby.
After 2029, Apophis will make repeated close approaches to Earth, particularly in 2051, 2066, and 2080. Models suggest no significant threat for at least the next century, but researchers continue to track its path closely.
NASA’s OSIRIS APEX spacecraft, following its mission to study near-Earth objects, is scheduled to make a close pass by Apophis after its 2029 flyby, which may provide additional data to understand the asteroid’s characteristics and potential impact risks.