Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
China’s $137 billion mega-dam near the Indian border isn’t just concrete and turbines—it’s a geopolitical message. Positioned on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the dam fuels fears of water weaponization downstream.
China controls the river’s origin, but not its volume. With just 30–35% of Brahmaputra’s flow originating in Tibet, Beijing can't pull the plug—most of the water rains down on India itself.
The real danger isn’t stoppage—it’s timing. Experts warn that China could flood India during monsoons by opening dams or choke supplies in dry seasons. Not war, but water whiplash.
Unlike India-Pakistan’s Indus deal, there’s no formal water-sharing treaty between Delhi and Beijing. Just a few fragile MoUs—and China hasn’t shared flood data since 2022.
Officially, China’s dams are “run-of-the-river”—non-storage, non-threatening. But analysts caution that with modifications, they could become storage-based and used for seasonal manipulation.
Since 2022, China has cut off hydrological data to India, blinding downstream flood prediction systems. In a river system that can kill in days, that’s no small silence.
Helsinki Rules, UN Watercourses Convention, UNECE frameworks—India can cite them, but China isn’t a signatory to any. International water law here is more hope than help.
Chinese officials have hinted at Brahmaputra leverage—but so far, no dam has been used as a weapon. Analysts say China prefers latent threat over open escalation.
Geologists warn: fully damming or diverting Brahmaputra could trigger ecological collapse and backlash across South Asia. Even Beijing can’t afford a Himalayan hydrological disaster.