‘Forecast to the last street’: India’s 6 km model can now predict extreme weather with precision

Produced by: Manoj Kumar

Forecast at 6 km

[{"selector":"#anim-0ec6aeec-e14a-4831-812d-3378df314995 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-42.26059938552216%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] India’s new B harat Forecast System (BFS) slashes forecast resolution from 12 km to 6 km—doubling precision for tracking extreme rainfall and cyclones. Representative pic

30% More Accurate

[{"selector":"#anim-b40a33e8-1c63-439d-ba2d-16d577ed093b [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-32.99278835833936%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] BFS trials showed a 30% improvement in predicting extreme rain, and 64% in core monsoon regions—offering hope against flash floods and storm chaos.

Homegrown Breakthrough

[{"selector":"#anim-003ce28d-7925-4e41-8fac-a0cad26c5635 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(34.22475951966107%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Developed by IITM Pune, BFS is the first Indian-made global model tailored for India—replacing reliance on outdated foreign systems. Representative pic

Monsoon Gamechanger

[{"selector":"#anim-4b3ba169-97e5-465d-84c2-12c603f74cd5 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-8.90134711505303%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] For India’s rain-reliant economy, BFS brings sharper cyclone tracking, better rainfall prediction, and real-time crisis alerts for cities like Delhi. Representative pic

From Grid to Grip

[{"selector":"#anim-906abc58-9dc2-4d2c-9fcb-369e1ce192a1 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(62.30011892166587%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] BFS uses a cutting-edge triangular-cubic-octahedral (Tco) grid—delivering higher resolution across tropics, where most of India’s extreme weather strikes. Representative pic

First Since 1999

[{"selector":"#anim-1160a222-3a06-4e53-ba2c-c0b5fac40335 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-34.11458323694124%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] India’s first serious upgrade in forecasting models since 1999. BFS marks a generational leap from the GFS T1534 model with 12.5 km resolution. Representative pic

Delhi’s Downpour Wake-Up

[{"selector":"#anim-3711b3cf-a6c3-4953-9d97-8fecac995d57 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate(0.7000000084682263%, 0%) scale(1.5)","translate(0%, 0%) scale(1)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"forwards"}] After 228 mm of rain in a day drowned Delhi in June 2024, BFS offers timely warnings that could avert future urban chaos and loss of life.

Climate vs Code

[{"selector":"#anim-6274488e-c71a-474e-867d-e15a1cc6ac7c [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-40.39028230072608%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] Climate change is making forecasting harder. But BFS aims to outpace rising unpredictability with stronger data models and simulation speed.

IMD’s Big Leap

[{"selector":"#anim-85dd3b89-9a31-4a39-a3f4-8ec63fbd06a1 [data-leaf-element=\"true\"]","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(-45.111083984218865%, 0, 0)","translate3d(0%, 0, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":2000,"easing":"cubic-bezier(.3,0,.55,1)","fill":"both"}] The Ministry of Earth Sciences calls it a “substantial leap.” BFS will help India lead in disaster readiness amid intensifying climate shocks.

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