Produced by: Manoj Kumar
Japan’s population peaked in 2008 and has declined since—dropping by nearly 900,000 people in 2024 alone, driven by falling births and an aging population.
As of 2025, 30% of Japan’s population is over 65, with more than 10% over 80—the highest aging rate globally, pressuring healthcare, pensions, and social infrastructure.
Entire towns are losing residents. Schools close while eldercare centers expand. Japan now sells more adult diapers than baby diapers, reflecting its demographic shift.
Japan’s worker-to-elderly ratio is 2:1 in 2025 and may reach 1:1 by 2060—fueling slower growth, labor shortages, and rising pension and healthcare costs.
The decline stems from a mix of ultra-low fertility (1.2), high life expectancy, delayed marriage, rigid work culture, minimal immigration, and evolving social norms.
Government incentives to raise birth rates or import labor have shown limited long-term success. Reversing demographic trends once they begin is proving difficult.
India’s current median age is under 29, but fertility is falling and life expectancy is rising—its demographic advantage could erode within two decades.
Kerala already mirrors Japan: 16.5% elderly in 2021, expected to rise to 23% by 2036. Some Indian regions face aging patterns decades ahead of the national curve.
India risks repeating Japan’s challenges—shrinking labor force, rising elderly costs, rural depopulation—unless it invests early in health, family support, and eldercare systems.