Produced by: Mohsin Shaikh
A NASA scientist warns that asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability has shifted—from 3.1% to 0.28%. While still low, the risk corridor covers major cities like Mumbai, Lagos, and Bogotá.
If it strikes, 2024 YR4 could hit densely populated areas, including Dhaka, Kolkata, and Khartoum. But experts say the most likely outcome? A near miss.
There's even a 0.3% chance that the asteroid might hit the Moon instead of Earth. While unlikely, it would be an unforgettable celestial event.
NASA is already considering asteroid deflection techniques, including kinetic impactors, to alter its trajectory—if future data shows a real threat.
As we approach 2032, asteroid monitoring will improve. Durham University professor Martin Ward says new data continuously refines impact predictions.
Credit: Durham University
Even if it does hit, 2024 YR4 could land in the ocean, minimizing human casualties. But a water impact could still trigger devastating tsunamis.
Compared to the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, 2024 YR4 is 150 times smaller. Still, its impact could cause severe regional damage.
Representative pic
With seven years until possible impact, planetary defense experts are closely watching. NASA’s Near-Earth Object Surveyor launches in 2027 to aid detection.
A direct land strike could cause widespread devastation, equivalent to a nuclear blast. But with ongoing observations, scientists remain optimistic about avoiding catastrophe.