GDP forecast crashes for Q4, FY20 as economic activity comes to a standstill

The second advance estimates of the government pegged the growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20, but analysts had doubted that number. The sudden pause in economic activity in many sectors after the commencement of the lockdown and its associated impact on profitability, are expected to have dampened GDP growth in Q4, FY20.Story: Shivani SharmaDesign: Mohsin Shaikh

Crisil has forecast the economic growth for January-March quarter to come in at a dismal 0.5 per cent while it estimates FY20 growth at 4 per cent.

According to SBI's research report, Ecowrap, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 4.2 per cent for FY20 and (-) 6.8 per cent for FY21. It estimated the GDP growth to be only 1.2 per cent in Q4, 2020.

ICRA pegs GDP growth at 1.9 per cent in Q4 and 4.3 per cent in FY20. ICRA has projected the economy to grow by 1.9 per cent in the fourth quarter against 5.8 per cent a year ago.

Ind-Ra has even revised the FY20 GDP forecast downward to 4.7 per cent. Average growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.8 per cent in 1HFY21.

A Reuters poll predicted that India's economy is likely to have expanded at its slowest pace in at least eight years in the January-March quarter, partly as a result of the coronavirus clampdown.

According to ICICI Bank's research report, the GDP growth is likely to be 4.2 per cent for full fiscal FY20 and minus 4 per cent for FY21 'with more than Rs 14 lakh crore of real output loss'. It estimated India's GDP growth to slow down to 1.5 per cent.

ICRA expects GDP growth in Q4 to be 3.6 per cent with the headline number coming down to 4.7 per cent for the entire year. Growth was 5.1 per cent for the first 9 months and would come down to 4.7 per cent by their estimates.