China’s Gwadar Gamble In Trouble? Security, Cargo & Commercial Returns Under Scanner

Gwadar was designed to be the maritime gateway of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — connecting China to the Arabian Sea and creating an alternative route for trade and energy supplies. But a Lowy Institute analysis highlights weak commercial returns, security challenges and difficult economics surrounding the project. Gwadar has struggled to attract the cargo volumes and shipping activity needed to become a major commercial hub, while Chinese interests in Balochistan have repeatedly faced security threats. The challenges could have implications beyond the port itself. With China becoming more selective about overseas infrastructure spending and Pakistan facing its own fiscal constraints, questions are growing over the commercial sustainability of CPEC and the future of the China-Pakistan economic partnership.