Did Trump's Iran Gamble Fail? How Khamenei's Death Changed Tehran's Power Structure

Did the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader weaken the Islamic Republic—or strengthen it? Four months after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, Iran's political system appears to have consolidated rather than collapsed. Massive funeral processions, a smooth leadership transition and the continued dominance of the Revolutionary Guard have raised questions about whether the push for regime change achieved its objective. This report examines how Tehran managed the succession, why its institutions remained intact, and what the developments mean for US-Iran tensions, Israel, regional security and the future of the Middle East.