Bihar exit poll 2025: Axis-My India predicts another term for NDA, Mahagathbandhan misses again
As per the Axis-My India exit poll, it is likely to be a close fight between the incumbent NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
- Nov 12, 2025,
- Updated Nov 12, 2025 7:30 PM IST
Voting for both phases of the Bihar assembly elections is over as a total of 7.43 crore voters exercised their right to franchise on November 6 and 11. The counting of votes will take place, and the results will be declared on November 14, 2025.
As per the Axis-My India exit poll, the ruling alliance is likely to secure a clear majority. The NDA is likely to win on 121-141 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure victory on around 98-118 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), on the other hand, is likely to get only 0-2 seats, whereas others are expected to win 1-7 seats.
The exit poll gave a vote share of 43 per cent to the NDA and 41 per cent to the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll also gave a 4 per cent vote share to Jan Suraaj and 12 per cent to others.
Bihar assembly elections 2025: What other exit polls are saying?
| Polling agency | NDA | Mahagathbandhan | Jan Suraaj Party | Others |
| Axis-My India | 121-141 | 98-118 | 0-2 | 1-7 |
| Today's Chanakya | 160 (+/-12) | 77 (+/12 seats) | NA | 6 (+/-3 seats) |
| People's Insight | 133-148 | 87-102 | 0-2 | 3-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133-159 | 75-101 | 0-5 | 2-8 |
| MATRIZE-IANS | 147-167 | 70-90 | NA | 2-6 |
| NDTV Poll of Polls | 148 | 88 | 2 | 5 |
| ABP News | 147-167 | 70-90 | NA | 2-6 |
| Times Now-JVC | 135-150 | 88-103 | NA | 3-7 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145-160 | 73-91 | 0 | 5-10 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 130-138 | 100-108 | NA | 3-5 |
| P-Marq | 147-167 | 80-98 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Polstrat | 133-148 | 87-102 | NA | 3-5 |
| DV Research | 137-152 | 83-98 | 0-4 | NA |
Bihar assembly elections: This pollster predicted a clean sweep for the NDA
Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, said that the NDA is likely to win 160 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan may bag 77 seats to become the distant second, with a margin of 12 seats on either side. Others, however, are likely to win on 6 seats, with a margin of 3 seats on either side.
Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, gave a 6 per cent edge to the NDA. The NDA is projected to win with a vote share of 44 per cent, whereas the Mahagathbandhan and others are likely to garner a vote share of 38 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.
Bihar assembly elections 2025: Region-wise predictions
| Region | Total seats | NDA | Mahagathbandhan | Jan Suraaj Party | Others |
| Seemanchal | 24 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Champaran | 21 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Kosi | 31 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhojpur | 49 | 27 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Mithilanchal | 58 | 32 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
| Magadh | 60 | 35 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Bihar election voter turnout
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 66.90%, up 9.6 points from 2020, in the just-concluded Assembly polls. Ten districts, including Muzaffarpur and Samastipur, crossed 70% turnout, most being NDA strongholds.
However, Katihar (78.84%), Kishanganj (78.15%), and Purnea (76.14%) in the Seemanchal region—Mahagathbandhan bastions with large Muslim populations—topped the list.
In phase one, 65.09% of 3.75 crore voters cast ballots across 121 constituencies. On Tuesday, 3.70 crore voters decided the fate of 1,302 candidates. Counting is scheduled for Friday.
Voting for both phases of the Bihar assembly elections is over as a total of 7.43 crore voters exercised their right to franchise on November 6 and 11. The counting of votes will take place, and the results will be declared on November 14, 2025.
As per the Axis-My India exit poll, the ruling alliance is likely to secure a clear majority. The NDA is likely to win on 121-141 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan is likely to secure victory on around 98-118 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), on the other hand, is likely to get only 0-2 seats, whereas others are expected to win 1-7 seats.
The exit poll gave a vote share of 43 per cent to the NDA and 41 per cent to the Mahagathbandhan. The exit poll also gave a 4 per cent vote share to Jan Suraaj and 12 per cent to others.
Bihar assembly elections 2025: What other exit polls are saying?
| Polling agency | NDA | Mahagathbandhan | Jan Suraaj Party | Others |
| Axis-My India | 121-141 | 98-118 | 0-2 | 1-7 |
| Today's Chanakya | 160 (+/-12) | 77 (+/12 seats) | NA | 6 (+/-3 seats) |
| People's Insight | 133-148 | 87-102 | 0-2 | 3-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133-159 | 75-101 | 0-5 | 2-8 |
| MATRIZE-IANS | 147-167 | 70-90 | NA | 2-6 |
| NDTV Poll of Polls | 148 | 88 | 2 | 5 |
| ABP News | 147-167 | 70-90 | NA | 2-6 |
| Times Now-JVC | 135-150 | 88-103 | NA | 3-7 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145-160 | 73-91 | 0 | 5-10 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 130-138 | 100-108 | NA | 3-5 |
| P-Marq | 147-167 | 80-98 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Polstrat | 133-148 | 87-102 | NA | 3-5 |
| DV Research | 137-152 | 83-98 | 0-4 | NA |
Bihar assembly elections: This pollster predicted a clean sweep for the NDA
Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, said that the NDA is likely to win 160 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan may bag 77 seats to become the distant second, with a margin of 12 seats on either side. Others, however, are likely to win on 6 seats, with a margin of 3 seats on either side.
Today's Chanakya, on the other hand, gave a 6 per cent edge to the NDA. The NDA is projected to win with a vote share of 44 per cent, whereas the Mahagathbandhan and others are likely to garner a vote share of 38 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively.
Bihar assembly elections 2025: Region-wise predictions
| Region | Total seats | NDA | Mahagathbandhan | Jan Suraaj Party | Others |
| Seemanchal | 24 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Champaran | 21 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Kosi | 31 | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhojpur | 49 | 27 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Mithilanchal | 58 | 32 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
| Magadh | 60 | 35 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Bihar election voter turnout
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 66.90%, up 9.6 points from 2020, in the just-concluded Assembly polls. Ten districts, including Muzaffarpur and Samastipur, crossed 70% turnout, most being NDA strongholds.
However, Katihar (78.84%), Kishanganj (78.15%), and Purnea (76.14%) in the Seemanchal region—Mahagathbandhan bastions with large Muslim populations—topped the list.
In phase one, 65.09% of 3.75 crore voters cast ballots across 121 constituencies. On Tuesday, 3.70 crore voters decided the fate of 1,302 candidates. Counting is scheduled for Friday.