From China to Japan, births are plunging across major economies. Sanjeev Sanyal shares data

Economist Sanjeev Sanyal on Thursday highlighted the sharp decline in annual births across several major economies. He shared a comparison that showed falls of up to more than 80% from historical peak levels.

The graph showed the decline across countries in East Asia, Europe, and North America. The figures suggest that annual births have fallen by anywhere between about 17% and more than 80% from their respective peaks.

Ukraine shows the steepest decline, at 83.4%. Japan follows at 75.2%, while South Korea is at 74.5%.

China's annual births are shown at 73.4% below the peak cited in the graphic.

Italy and Poland show declines of 65.3% and 64.8%, respectively. Russia's annual births are down 61.1%, followed by Spain at 54.1% and Germany at 49.3%.

The United States has seen a much smaller decline by comparison. Its annual births are shown at 16.7% below the 2007 peak used in the graphic.

What The Numbers Show

Sanyal's post comes against a broader decline in fertility documented by the United Nations. The UN's World Population Prospects 2024 says more than half of countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Nearly one-fifth have "ultra-low" fertility of fewer than 1.4 births per woman, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain.

"In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 - the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration," the UN said in July 2024. "Nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea, and Spain, now have "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime."

Sanyal On India's Falling Fertility

Sanyal had also written about India's demographic shift in Business Today in August 2025.

"While India's population is still growing due to improved longevity, it is important to note that the number of births peaked quarter of a century ago, at 29 million in 2001, and is estimated at about 23 million for 2024," he wrote.

The economist said India's total fertility rate, or TFR, had fallen below the replacement level. TFR refers to the number of live births per female of reproductive age.

"The globally accepted replacement rate is 2.1, but this number is true for developed economies where infant mortality rates are low and the sex ratio at birth has been stable," he wrote.

He noted that India's infant mortality rate was 24.5 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023, according to the WHO, compared with less than 5.5 in developed countries.

India had also experienced decades of a skewed sex ratio at birth, though this has improved, Sanyal said. He argued that the earlier imbalance had a long-term effect on the pipeline of women of reproductive age.

"Thus, India's required replacement rate is higher at around 2.25 in our view. The gap between India's TFR and the replacement rate, therefore, is worse than appears at first glance."

According to the UN, as of 2024, population size had peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation, and the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14 per cent over the next thirty years. For another 48 countries and areas, including Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Türkiye, and Vietnam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. 

In the remaining 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or later.