Adani Green Energy: Jefferies expects 69% upside amid short-term correction
Adani Green Energy has retained its FY27E capacity addition target and storage expansion plan while matching new projects with transmission readiness.
- Sep 18, 2026,
- Updated Sep 18, 2026 9:52 AM IST
Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) remains confident of adding 5 GW of capacity in FY27E, while aligning its capacity addition timelines with transmission infrastructure to reduce curtailment risk, according to global investment bank Jefferies. The company is also on track to raise Battery Energy Storage System capacity from 3.6 GWh at present to more than 10 GWh by FY27E. Its capacity tie-up with Adani Energy Solutions caps merchant upside, but improves earnings predictability.
Khavda is expected to play a bigger role in AGEL's portfolio as the company pushes towards its planned 50 GW capacity by 2030. Khavda currently accounts for 47% of AGEL's operating capacity, and its share is expected to rise to 60% under the 2030 plan. The site has the best solar irradiation levels in India after Ladakh, and this is expected to help incremental utilisation rise to more than 30% from the current company average of 25-26%.
In FY26, Adani Green added 3.4 GW of solar capacity, 0.7 GW of wind capacity and 1 GW of hybrid capacity. Its 50 GW target includes 5 GW of Pumped Storage Project capacity. The pumped storage development is spread across Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The company also has a strong project pipeline and land bank, which provides visibility on meeting the 50 GW target by 2030.
On the balance sheet, AGEL's net debt to EBITDA is expected to decline to 7.1x by FY30E from 8.9x in FY26, based on a 44 GW capacity assumption. The promoter group subscribed to 63 million warrants in 2024 at Rs 1,480.75 a share and planned an equity investment of Rs 93.5 billion in AGEL.
A quarter of this was paid in 2024, while the balance was infused between April and July 2025. Most of AGEL's installed capacity is tied up under long-term power purchase agreements, providing steady cash flow visibility and supporting confidence in balance sheet improvement. The company plans capital expenditure of Rs 420 billion in FY27E.
Growth prospects
AGEL's installed capacity has risen 175% since January 2023, even as its market capitalisation is 30% lower. EBITDA rose at a 25% CAGR over FY23-26 and is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR over FY26-30E, while EPS is forecast to grow at a 26% CAGR over the same period. The company has also highlighted a healthy execution track record and prudent capital management aimed at maximising equity value from projects. Management said volatility is being limited through advance land acquisition, back-to-back module tie-ups, rate locking through long-tenure bonds and digitalisation that allows process-driven execution.
The valuation premium to JSW Energy, which has both renewable and thermal assets, has narrowed from 264% in January 2023 to 58% currently.
Price targets
The stock has fallen 14% in six months and slipped 5% in a month. In six months, the Adani Group stock has gained 46% and risen 30% in a year. The price target of Rs 1,695 by Jefferies is based on 20x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E, reflecting a premium to JSW Energy's 14x because of AGEL's higher growth and pure renewable asset base.
Under the base case, the stock target is Rs 1,695, implying 34% upside, with installed capacity expected to reach 37.3 GW by FY29E along with 20 GWh of BESS capacity and EBITDA CAGR of 30% over FY26-30E. In the upside scenario, the target is Rs 2,140, implying 69% upside, if visibility on the 50 GW target improves with more project wins, and this is based on 22x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E.
In the downside scenario, the target is Rs 1,250, implying 2% downside, if project execution is delayed amid higher input costs, and this is based on 18x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E.
Key risks
The key risks remain execution delays, especially at Khavda, and aggressive bidding. Even so, the company has maintained its FY27E capacity addition target, its storage expansion plan and its longer-term 50 GW ambition for 2030, while relying on long-term agreements, equity infusion and capital discipline to support growth.
Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) remains confident of adding 5 GW of capacity in FY27E, while aligning its capacity addition timelines with transmission infrastructure to reduce curtailment risk, according to global investment bank Jefferies. The company is also on track to raise Battery Energy Storage System capacity from 3.6 GWh at present to more than 10 GWh by FY27E. Its capacity tie-up with Adani Energy Solutions caps merchant upside, but improves earnings predictability.
Khavda is expected to play a bigger role in AGEL's portfolio as the company pushes towards its planned 50 GW capacity by 2030. Khavda currently accounts for 47% of AGEL's operating capacity, and its share is expected to rise to 60% under the 2030 plan. The site has the best solar irradiation levels in India after Ladakh, and this is expected to help incremental utilisation rise to more than 30% from the current company average of 25-26%.
In FY26, Adani Green added 3.4 GW of solar capacity, 0.7 GW of wind capacity and 1 GW of hybrid capacity. Its 50 GW target includes 5 GW of Pumped Storage Project capacity. The pumped storage development is spread across Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The company also has a strong project pipeline and land bank, which provides visibility on meeting the 50 GW target by 2030.
On the balance sheet, AGEL's net debt to EBITDA is expected to decline to 7.1x by FY30E from 8.9x in FY26, based on a 44 GW capacity assumption. The promoter group subscribed to 63 million warrants in 2024 at Rs 1,480.75 a share and planned an equity investment of Rs 93.5 billion in AGEL.
A quarter of this was paid in 2024, while the balance was infused between April and July 2025. Most of AGEL's installed capacity is tied up under long-term power purchase agreements, providing steady cash flow visibility and supporting confidence in balance sheet improvement. The company plans capital expenditure of Rs 420 billion in FY27E.
Growth prospects
AGEL's installed capacity has risen 175% since January 2023, even as its market capitalisation is 30% lower. EBITDA rose at a 25% CAGR over FY23-26 and is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR over FY26-30E, while EPS is forecast to grow at a 26% CAGR over the same period. The company has also highlighted a healthy execution track record and prudent capital management aimed at maximising equity value from projects. Management said volatility is being limited through advance land acquisition, back-to-back module tie-ups, rate locking through long-tenure bonds and digitalisation that allows process-driven execution.
The valuation premium to JSW Energy, which has both renewable and thermal assets, has narrowed from 264% in January 2023 to 58% currently.
Price targets
The stock has fallen 14% in six months and slipped 5% in a month. In six months, the Adani Group stock has gained 46% and risen 30% in a year. The price target of Rs 1,695 by Jefferies is based on 20x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E, reflecting a premium to JSW Energy's 14x because of AGEL's higher growth and pure renewable asset base.
Under the base case, the stock target is Rs 1,695, implying 34% upside, with installed capacity expected to reach 37.3 GW by FY29E along with 20 GWh of BESS capacity and EBITDA CAGR of 30% over FY26-30E. In the upside scenario, the target is Rs 2,140, implying 69% upside, if visibility on the 50 GW target improves with more project wins, and this is based on 22x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E.
In the downside scenario, the target is Rs 1,250, implying 2% downside, if project execution is delayed amid higher input costs, and this is based on 18x EV/EBITDA for September 2028E.
Key risks
The key risks remain execution delays, especially at Khavda, and aggressive bidding. Even so, the company has maintained its FY27E capacity addition target, its storage expansion plan and its longer-term 50 GW ambition for 2030, while relying on long-term agreements, equity infusion and capital discipline to support growth.