Adani Power, NTPC, ACME Solar shares among Antique's top power sector picks
For long-term growth, the brokerage preferred Adani Power Ltd, citing its 2.3 times expansion in thermal capacity, and ACME Solar, where merchant BESS arbitrage boosted earnings despite delays in project commissioning.
- Jun 30, 2026,
- Updated Jun 30, 2026 9:11 AM IST
Antique Stock Broking in its latest note said India's power sector is long on capacity but short on firm deliverability. Despite installed capacity crossing 537 GW and near-zero FY26 deficits, 40 GW of awarded renewables remained unsigned, curtailment is rising in surplus pockets, and the evening peak shortages persisted, the domestic brokerage said.
With grid access emerging as the scarce asset amid transmission delays and 128 GW connectivity logjam, it prefers companies positioned to benefit from this structural shift. Antique has NTPC Ltd as its preferred pick with a 'Buy' and a target price of Rs 423, citing the prevailing valuations with limited downside risk.
"Its recent slide is sentiment-driven reflecting management transition concerns and sector-wide fund raises/rotation, not fundamentals as the regulated model earns on availability," it said.
For long-term growth, the brokerage preferred Adani Power Ltd, citing its 2.3 times expansion in thermal capacity, and ACME Solar, where merchant BESS arbitrage boosted earnings despite delays in project commissioning. Antique suggested a target of Rs 242 on Adani Power and Rs 363 on ACME Solar Holdings.
"The scarce asset is no longer megawatts but firm, time-specific grid access. CEA's May-26 data shows 57 of 86 under-construction ISTS projects running ~10 months behind schedule, concentrated in Rajasthan and Gujarat renewable corridors," Antique said.
It said CERC's draft GNA Fourth Amendment further highlighted a 128GW connectivity backlog and 33GW of stranded in-principle grants. As a result, developers are deferring capex and shifting aggressively towards firm power capacity, while the day-evening merchant spreads continue to reflect the scarcity of eveningcapable evacuation infrastructure, Antique said.
Antique said the transmission bottlenecks accounted for roughly two-thirds of the 300 GWh renewable curtailment seen in the March quarter. Around 20 GW of TGNA-connected capacity is already facing GNA delays beyond four months, and these are the first projects to be curtailed when grid headroom tightens, Antique id.
"Developers are responding rationally by deferring commissioning, staggering capex, and redirecting bids toward firm structures that align with available evacuation. As a result, FDRE, RTC, and solar-plus-storage now form a major share of active tenders as the market shifts decisively toward deliverable, evening-capable power. The Rs 7-8/kWh day-versus-evening merchant spread is the market explicitly pricing this scarcity of firm access; merchant BESS operators are capturing the arbitrage and using it to offset earnings pressure from delayed project commissioning," Antique said.
Antique Stock Broking in its latest note said India's power sector is long on capacity but short on firm deliverability. Despite installed capacity crossing 537 GW and near-zero FY26 deficits, 40 GW of awarded renewables remained unsigned, curtailment is rising in surplus pockets, and the evening peak shortages persisted, the domestic brokerage said.
With grid access emerging as the scarce asset amid transmission delays and 128 GW connectivity logjam, it prefers companies positioned to benefit from this structural shift. Antique has NTPC Ltd as its preferred pick with a 'Buy' and a target price of Rs 423, citing the prevailing valuations with limited downside risk.
"Its recent slide is sentiment-driven reflecting management transition concerns and sector-wide fund raises/rotation, not fundamentals as the regulated model earns on availability," it said.
For long-term growth, the brokerage preferred Adani Power Ltd, citing its 2.3 times expansion in thermal capacity, and ACME Solar, where merchant BESS arbitrage boosted earnings despite delays in project commissioning. Antique suggested a target of Rs 242 on Adani Power and Rs 363 on ACME Solar Holdings.
"The scarce asset is no longer megawatts but firm, time-specific grid access. CEA's May-26 data shows 57 of 86 under-construction ISTS projects running ~10 months behind schedule, concentrated in Rajasthan and Gujarat renewable corridors," Antique said.
It said CERC's draft GNA Fourth Amendment further highlighted a 128GW connectivity backlog and 33GW of stranded in-principle grants. As a result, developers are deferring capex and shifting aggressively towards firm power capacity, while the day-evening merchant spreads continue to reflect the scarcity of eveningcapable evacuation infrastructure, Antique said.
Antique said the transmission bottlenecks accounted for roughly two-thirds of the 300 GWh renewable curtailment seen in the March quarter. Around 20 GW of TGNA-connected capacity is already facing GNA delays beyond four months, and these are the first projects to be curtailed when grid headroom tightens, Antique id.
"Developers are responding rationally by deferring commissioning, staggering capex, and redirecting bids toward firm structures that align with available evacuation. As a result, FDRE, RTC, and solar-plus-storage now form a major share of active tenders as the market shifts decisively toward deliverable, evening-capable power. The Rs 7-8/kWh day-versus-evening merchant spread is the market explicitly pricing this scarcity of firm access; merchant BESS operators are capturing the arbitrage and using it to offset earnings pressure from delayed project commissioning," Antique said.