Adani Power shares: Brokerages see up to 38% upside potential; check targets
JM Financial said Adani Power reported adjusted revenue of Rs 16,500 crore in the September quarter (Q2 FY27), up 29 per cent year-on-year (YoY), while the figure was 1 per cent lower sequentially.
- Oct 27, 2026,
- Updated Oct 27, 2026 10:16 AM IST
Shares of Adani Power could see an upside of up to 38 per cent, according to select brokerages' estimates. JM Financial has maintained its 'Buy' rating on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 258, up from Rs 255 earlier. The 12-month target price implied an upside potential of 38 per cent from the brokerage's assessed market price of Rs 187.
JM Financial said Adani Power reported adjusted revenue of Rs 16,500 crore in the September quarter (Q2 FY27), up 29 per cent year-on-year (YoY), while the figure was 1 per cent lower sequentially. Revenue was 5 per cent below the brokerage's estimate but 4 per cent above consensus estimates.
Units sold rose 11 per cent YoY to 26.4 billion units (BU), supported by an improvement in plant load factor (PLF) to 70 per cent from 62.8 per cent in Q2 FY26. Average realisations for power purchase agreement (PPA) and merchant stood at Rs 6.4 and Rs 7.2 per unit, respectively, up 13 per cent and 33 per cent YoY.
However, EBITDA margin came in at 32 per cent, down 305 basis points (bps) YoY and 228 bps sequentially. The margin was below JM Financial's and consensus estimates, which the brokerage attributed in its initial assessment to a 50 per cent increase in the landed cost of imported coal.
JM Financial expects Adani Power to commission the two 660 MW units of Korba-II in Q3 FY27 and Q4 FY27, respectively, followed by the 1,600 MW Mahan-II project in FY28. It also estimates that 3,600 MW of capacity will be commissioned in FY29.
The brokerage cited the increasing power deficit during evening hours, faster commissioning of new capacities and the company's financial profile as key factors supporting its outlook. It noted that the evening power deficit stood at 5.1 GW, 4.1 GW and 7.7 GW in calendar years 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.
JM Financial added that Adani Power's capacity additions were progressing on a faster timeline of around four years, compared with the industry average of five to six years. It also expects the company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to remain at 2.5-3 times during FY26-FY29.
The brokerage has valued Adani Power at 18 times its estimated September 2028 EV/EBITDA to arrive at its revised target price of Rs 258.
Elara Securities has retained its 'Accumulate' rating on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 220, implying an upside potential of 18 per cent.
"The company offers strong earnings visibility, supported by its 24GW locked-in capacity expansion, rising PPA (power purchase agreements) coverage, and upside from merchant power. We reduce our earnings estimates for FY27, factoring in delay in capacity addition. We believe a significant portion of the company’s medium-term growth opportunity is already reflected in the current valuation. We retain Accumulate with a TP of Rs 220 based on 12x FY29E EV/EBITDA," Elara Securities said.
Shares of Adani Power could see an upside of up to 38 per cent, according to select brokerages' estimates. JM Financial has maintained its 'Buy' rating on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 258, up from Rs 255 earlier. The 12-month target price implied an upside potential of 38 per cent from the brokerage's assessed market price of Rs 187.
JM Financial said Adani Power reported adjusted revenue of Rs 16,500 crore in the September quarter (Q2 FY27), up 29 per cent year-on-year (YoY), while the figure was 1 per cent lower sequentially. Revenue was 5 per cent below the brokerage's estimate but 4 per cent above consensus estimates.
Units sold rose 11 per cent YoY to 26.4 billion units (BU), supported by an improvement in plant load factor (PLF) to 70 per cent from 62.8 per cent in Q2 FY26. Average realisations for power purchase agreement (PPA) and merchant stood at Rs 6.4 and Rs 7.2 per unit, respectively, up 13 per cent and 33 per cent YoY.
However, EBITDA margin came in at 32 per cent, down 305 basis points (bps) YoY and 228 bps sequentially. The margin was below JM Financial's and consensus estimates, which the brokerage attributed in its initial assessment to a 50 per cent increase in the landed cost of imported coal.
JM Financial expects Adani Power to commission the two 660 MW units of Korba-II in Q3 FY27 and Q4 FY27, respectively, followed by the 1,600 MW Mahan-II project in FY28. It also estimates that 3,600 MW of capacity will be commissioned in FY29.
The brokerage cited the increasing power deficit during evening hours, faster commissioning of new capacities and the company's financial profile as key factors supporting its outlook. It noted that the evening power deficit stood at 5.1 GW, 4.1 GW and 7.7 GW in calendar years 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.
JM Financial added that Adani Power's capacity additions were progressing on a faster timeline of around four years, compared with the industry average of five to six years. It also expects the company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to remain at 2.5-3 times during FY26-FY29.
The brokerage has valued Adani Power at 18 times its estimated September 2028 EV/EBITDA to arrive at its revised target price of Rs 258.
Elara Securities has retained its 'Accumulate' rating on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 220, implying an upside potential of 18 per cent.
"The company offers strong earnings visibility, supported by its 24GW locked-in capacity expansion, rising PPA (power purchase agreements) coverage, and upside from merchant power. We reduce our earnings estimates for FY27, factoring in delay in capacity addition. We believe a significant portion of the company’s medium-term growth opportunity is already reflected in the current valuation. We retain Accumulate with a TP of Rs 220 based on 12x FY29E EV/EBITDA," Elara Securities said.