Eternal, Swiggy shares: Blinkit to beat Instamart in Q1? JM's top bet has 70% upside potential
For Eternal Ltd, JM broadly maintained its operating assumptions across businesses. However, it upped its target on the stock to Rs 440 from Rs 400, mainly on account of a roll-forward to June 2027.
- Jun 30, 2026,
- Updated Jun 30, 2026 11:15 AM IST
In its June quarter preview note, JM Financial said the first quarter results are likely to underline a widening gap in the listed quick commerce (QC) space, with Eternal's Blinkit expected to significantly outperform Swiggy's Instamart in terms of growth. The brokerage said Eternal remained its top pick, with 70 per cent upside. It revised its target upward for Eternal Ltd and sees limited upside on Swiggy.
According to JM Financial, Blinkit’s net order value (NOV) could rise about 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in the first quarter, against about 8 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of FY26, helped by seasonal demand and continued dark store expansion. Instamart, by contrast, could post a relatively muted growth of about 5 per cent QoQ, compared with about 4 per cent in 4QFY26, despite similar seasonal tailwinds.
For Eternal Ltd, JM broadly maintained its operating assumptions across businesses. However, it upped its target on the stock to Rs 440 from Rs 400, mainly on account of a roll-forward to June 2027.
For Swiggy Ltd, it continued to assign no value to Instamart and other loss-making businesses while excluding cash from its valuation owing to the continued high cash burn at a consolidated level.
"Further, we lower the valuation for the FD business to 35x EV/adjusted Ebitda (from 38 times) on the back of 8-9 per cent cut in Ebitda estimates over FY27-29, yielding a revised June 2027 target of Rs 250 from Rs 280.
"We maintain a 'Reduce' rating on the stock as we remain unconvinced that Instamart will see a meaningful turnaround with the current strategy," it said.
The brokerage said Swiggy continued to focus on contribution margin improvement through rationalisation of loss-making orders. While this may help Instamart turn contribution margin positive in the June quarter, its adjusted Ebitda loss could still remain high at about Rs 760 crore, compared with Rs 860 crore in Q4. Blinkit, on the other hand, is expected to report an adjusted Ebitda profit of Rs 125 crore, against Rs 37 crore in the previous quarter.
JM Financial said the trade-off between profitability and growth would be the key factor to watch for Instamart, while Blinkit’s QoQ growth acceleration could positively surprise the market.
In food delivery, the brokerage expects about 19 per cent YoY gross order value (GOV) and NOV growth for Swiggy and Zomato, with adjusted Ebitda margin for Swiggy seen down 30 basis points QoQ because of higher delivery costs and annual wage revisions. Margin for Zomato is expected to remain flat.
In its June quarter preview note, JM Financial said the first quarter results are likely to underline a widening gap in the listed quick commerce (QC) space, with Eternal's Blinkit expected to significantly outperform Swiggy's Instamart in terms of growth. The brokerage said Eternal remained its top pick, with 70 per cent upside. It revised its target upward for Eternal Ltd and sees limited upside on Swiggy.
According to JM Financial, Blinkit’s net order value (NOV) could rise about 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in the first quarter, against about 8 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of FY26, helped by seasonal demand and continued dark store expansion. Instamart, by contrast, could post a relatively muted growth of about 5 per cent QoQ, compared with about 4 per cent in 4QFY26, despite similar seasonal tailwinds.
For Eternal Ltd, JM broadly maintained its operating assumptions across businesses. However, it upped its target on the stock to Rs 440 from Rs 400, mainly on account of a roll-forward to June 2027.
For Swiggy Ltd, it continued to assign no value to Instamart and other loss-making businesses while excluding cash from its valuation owing to the continued high cash burn at a consolidated level.
"Further, we lower the valuation for the FD business to 35x EV/adjusted Ebitda (from 38 times) on the back of 8-9 per cent cut in Ebitda estimates over FY27-29, yielding a revised June 2027 target of Rs 250 from Rs 280.
"We maintain a 'Reduce' rating on the stock as we remain unconvinced that Instamart will see a meaningful turnaround with the current strategy," it said.
The brokerage said Swiggy continued to focus on contribution margin improvement through rationalisation of loss-making orders. While this may help Instamart turn contribution margin positive in the June quarter, its adjusted Ebitda loss could still remain high at about Rs 760 crore, compared with Rs 860 crore in Q4. Blinkit, on the other hand, is expected to report an adjusted Ebitda profit of Rs 125 crore, against Rs 37 crore in the previous quarter.
JM Financial said the trade-off between profitability and growth would be the key factor to watch for Instamart, while Blinkit’s QoQ growth acceleration could positively surprise the market.
In food delivery, the brokerage expects about 19 per cent YoY gross order value (GOV) and NOV growth for Swiggy and Zomato, with adjusted Ebitda margin for Swiggy seen down 30 basis points QoQ because of higher delivery costs and annual wage revisions. Margin for Zomato is expected to remain flat.