GAIL shares: Emkay upgrades stock, sees 16% upside; check target price
Emkay has retained its target price of Rs 200 for GAIL, which implies an upside of around 16% from the brokerage's reference price of Rs 173. The brokerage upgraded the stock from 'Add' to 'Buy'.
- Sep 24, 2026,
- Updated Sep 24, 2026 4:02 PM IST
Emkay Global on Thursday upgraded GAIL (India) Ltd to 'Buy' from 'Add', citing a steady core business and earnings outlook along with attractive valuations. The brokerage suggested a target price of Rs 200 on the stock, implying an upside of around 16% from the stock's prevailing price.
Emkay Global said Indian gas demand has improved sequentially in the second quarter despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis and higher LNG prices. Gas demand in July-August 2026 declined only 2% year-on-year, while GAIL's gas transmission volumes are expected to improve sequentially and potentially exceed the company's FY27 guidance of 123 mmscmd.
Emkay's target of Rs 200 on GAIL is against Rs 173 target it suggested earlier.
The brokerage expects GAIL's gas marketing profitability to decline sequentially as formulaic trailing averages normalise. However, it expects the company's FY27 gas marketing earnings guidance of Rs 40-45 billion to see a sizable beat, supported by stable Henry Hub settlement prices and elevated oil and spot LNG prices. Emkay has built in a Brent crude price assumption of $85 per barrel, compared with an average of around $100 per barrel in the first half of FY27.
GAIL's petrochemicals segment is also expected to improve sequentially, with plant utilisation at Pata expected to be close to 100%. Emkay expects higher oil prices to support polyethylene realisations, while petrochemical Ebitda is expected to turn positive compared with a marginal loss in the first quarter of FY27.
The brokerage raised its FY27-29 earnings-per-share estimates by 2-3% each. Its revised estimates put GAIL's FY27 revenue at Rs 1.47 lakh crore, Ebitda at Rs 17,148 crore and adjusted profit after tax at Rs 11,108 crore. EPS is estimated at Rs 16.9 for FY27, compared with the previous estimate of Rs 16.5.
GAIL's upcoming petrochemical projects could provide another growth driver. The Mangalore PTA and Usar PDH-PP projects are expected to be commissioned within the next 1-1.5 years, although Emkay has not factored any contribution from these projects into its estimates despite including the related capital expenditure.
The brokerage also highlighted GAIL's plans to enter the fertiliser segment through two urea projects with a combined capacity of around 2.5 million tonnes per annum along the Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline. The projects are expected to provide assured returns of 12-16% while generating anchor gas volumes of around 4-5 mmscmd for the pipeline.
Emkay Global on Thursday upgraded GAIL (India) Ltd to 'Buy' from 'Add', citing a steady core business and earnings outlook along with attractive valuations. The brokerage suggested a target price of Rs 200 on the stock, implying an upside of around 16% from the stock's prevailing price.
Emkay Global said Indian gas demand has improved sequentially in the second quarter despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis and higher LNG prices. Gas demand in July-August 2026 declined only 2% year-on-year, while GAIL's gas transmission volumes are expected to improve sequentially and potentially exceed the company's FY27 guidance of 123 mmscmd.
Emkay's target of Rs 200 on GAIL is against Rs 173 target it suggested earlier.
The brokerage expects GAIL's gas marketing profitability to decline sequentially as formulaic trailing averages normalise. However, it expects the company's FY27 gas marketing earnings guidance of Rs 40-45 billion to see a sizable beat, supported by stable Henry Hub settlement prices and elevated oil and spot LNG prices. Emkay has built in a Brent crude price assumption of $85 per barrel, compared with an average of around $100 per barrel in the first half of FY27.
GAIL's petrochemicals segment is also expected to improve sequentially, with plant utilisation at Pata expected to be close to 100%. Emkay expects higher oil prices to support polyethylene realisations, while petrochemical Ebitda is expected to turn positive compared with a marginal loss in the first quarter of FY27.
The brokerage raised its FY27-29 earnings-per-share estimates by 2-3% each. Its revised estimates put GAIL's FY27 revenue at Rs 1.47 lakh crore, Ebitda at Rs 17,148 crore and adjusted profit after tax at Rs 11,108 crore. EPS is estimated at Rs 16.9 for FY27, compared with the previous estimate of Rs 16.5.
GAIL's upcoming petrochemical projects could provide another growth driver. The Mangalore PTA and Usar PDH-PP projects are expected to be commissioned within the next 1-1.5 years, although Emkay has not factored any contribution from these projects into its estimates despite including the related capital expenditure.
The brokerage also highlighted GAIL's plans to enter the fertiliser segment through two urea projects with a combined capacity of around 2.5 million tonnes per annum along the Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline. The projects are expected to provide assured returns of 12-16% while generating anchor gas volumes of around 4-5 mmscmd for the pipeline.