HDFC Bank share price: Fifth-worst Nifty performer of 2026 offers maximum upside
HDFC Bank shares: JPMorgan on August 20 said it is 'Overweight' on HDFC Bank following its recent underperformance against peers and the broader market, citing an attractive risk-reward.
- Aug 27, 2026,
- Updated Aug 27, 2026 2:29 PM IST
HDFC Bank Ltd, the fifth-worst Nifty performer of 2026, offers the maximum upside potential among constituents of the 50-stock index, 12-month consensus data showed. Following a 28 per cent plunge in the largest private lender year-to-date, the one-year target price for HDFC Bank at Rs 1,022.45, based on 49 analyst recommendations, implies 43 per cent upside.
This compares with a projected 19.5 per cent upside for the benchmark, with the Nifty target at 28,880, Bloomberg data showed. Next in line, Nifty stocks SBI Life and HDFC Life are anticipated to deliver 33 per cent returns each over the next 12 months.
Haitong's Kaushik Agarwal on Wednesday suggested 'Outperform' on HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 990. The scrip stood at Rs 713.95 in Thursday's trade. Bernstein on Tuesday also suggested 'Outperform', with a higher target of Rs 1,150, while JM Financial on Monday set a target of Rs 800.
The HDCF Bank stock was in focus this week amid reports a group of investors who bought Carlisle's life settlement product through the lender's Dubai operations planned to write to the Prime Minister's Office this week, alleging mis-selling, substantial losses and years-long denial of redemption. Given the recent weakness in HDFC Bank shares, an analyst expected HDFC Bank shares could fall to Rs 675-680 in the short term.
That said, one-year targets for the bank suggested healthy upside potential. JPMorgan on August 20 said it is 'Overweight' on HDFC Bank following its recent underperformance against peers and the broader market, citing an attractive risk-reward.
While concerns around deposit mobilisation, deposit market-share gains in a constrained deposit environment and balance-sheet normalisation continue to weigh on sentiment and pose downside risks to consensus forecasts, the brokerage believes the recent valuation de-rating already factors in the likely earnings risk.
HDFC Bank's market-share gains in deposits, supported by improved efficiency of its recently opened branches, will be closely tracked, JPMorgan said.
"We expect HDFC Bank to be a key beneficiary of system credit growth recovery. Further, we believe HDFCB's strong asset quality track record and strong liability franchise position it well in the current uncertain macro environment as investors move towards large-cap quality names. We see scope for a valuation re-rating," it said.
In the case of Bernstein, the brokerage said it liked HDFC Bank, along with ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank.
"We rate ICICI, Axis, HDFC and IIB as Outperform; KMB and SBI as Market-Perform. We update our models for Axis, KMB and SBI to reflect the latest quarterly numbers and make modest changes to our assumption on growth and margins. All encompassing, our changes result in less than 2 per cent change to our EPS estimates with no change to our target prices," Bernstein said.
JM Financial said balance-sheet risk trends at HDFC Bank remained mixed, with reduced borrower/NPA concentration and a rising share of better-rated corporates being key positives, while a rising share of CRE/capital-market loans and a sharp jump in contingent liabilities remained key negatives.
Liabilities, it said, remained a key focus area, with a falling retail deposit share, higher reliance on wholesale funding and moderation in LCR.
On the positive side, legacy e-HDFC borrowings continued to decline, while the bank gained 33 basis points in overall deposit market share.
The brokerage valued HDFC Bank's core banking business at 1.5 times FY28 core earnings.
"Asset quality trends were stable during FY26. While stress improved across the services and retail portfolios, it deteriorated further in agriculture, driven by higher delinquencies in animal husbandry and select PSL segments. Consequently, credit cost in the agriculture portfolio increased. The rising share of ageing NPAs also warrants monitoring as the bank transitions to the ECL framework," JM Financial said.
HDFC Bank has fallen 28 per cent in 2026. ITC, Wipro, Infosys and TCS are four stocks falling 30-33 per cent during the same period.
HDFC Bank Ltd, the fifth-worst Nifty performer of 2026, offers the maximum upside potential among constituents of the 50-stock index, 12-month consensus data showed. Following a 28 per cent plunge in the largest private lender year-to-date, the one-year target price for HDFC Bank at Rs 1,022.45, based on 49 analyst recommendations, implies 43 per cent upside.
This compares with a projected 19.5 per cent upside for the benchmark, with the Nifty target at 28,880, Bloomberg data showed. Next in line, Nifty stocks SBI Life and HDFC Life are anticipated to deliver 33 per cent returns each over the next 12 months.
Haitong's Kaushik Agarwal on Wednesday suggested 'Outperform' on HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 990. The scrip stood at Rs 713.95 in Thursday's trade. Bernstein on Tuesday also suggested 'Outperform', with a higher target of Rs 1,150, while JM Financial on Monday set a target of Rs 800.
The HDCF Bank stock was in focus this week amid reports a group of investors who bought Carlisle's life settlement product through the lender's Dubai operations planned to write to the Prime Minister's Office this week, alleging mis-selling, substantial losses and years-long denial of redemption. Given the recent weakness in HDFC Bank shares, an analyst expected HDFC Bank shares could fall to Rs 675-680 in the short term.
That said, one-year targets for the bank suggested healthy upside potential. JPMorgan on August 20 said it is 'Overweight' on HDFC Bank following its recent underperformance against peers and the broader market, citing an attractive risk-reward.
While concerns around deposit mobilisation, deposit market-share gains in a constrained deposit environment and balance-sheet normalisation continue to weigh on sentiment and pose downside risks to consensus forecasts, the brokerage believes the recent valuation de-rating already factors in the likely earnings risk.
HDFC Bank's market-share gains in deposits, supported by improved efficiency of its recently opened branches, will be closely tracked, JPMorgan said.
"We expect HDFC Bank to be a key beneficiary of system credit growth recovery. Further, we believe HDFCB's strong asset quality track record and strong liability franchise position it well in the current uncertain macro environment as investors move towards large-cap quality names. We see scope for a valuation re-rating," it said.
In the case of Bernstein, the brokerage said it liked HDFC Bank, along with ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank.
"We rate ICICI, Axis, HDFC and IIB as Outperform; KMB and SBI as Market-Perform. We update our models for Axis, KMB and SBI to reflect the latest quarterly numbers and make modest changes to our assumption on growth and margins. All encompassing, our changes result in less than 2 per cent change to our EPS estimates with no change to our target prices," Bernstein said.
JM Financial said balance-sheet risk trends at HDFC Bank remained mixed, with reduced borrower/NPA concentration and a rising share of better-rated corporates being key positives, while a rising share of CRE/capital-market loans and a sharp jump in contingent liabilities remained key negatives.
Liabilities, it said, remained a key focus area, with a falling retail deposit share, higher reliance on wholesale funding and moderation in LCR.
On the positive side, legacy e-HDFC borrowings continued to decline, while the bank gained 33 basis points in overall deposit market share.
The brokerage valued HDFC Bank's core banking business at 1.5 times FY28 core earnings.
"Asset quality trends were stable during FY26. While stress improved across the services and retail portfolios, it deteriorated further in agriculture, driven by higher delinquencies in animal husbandry and select PSL segments. Consequently, credit cost in the agriculture portfolio increased. The rising share of ageing NPAs also warrants monitoring as the bank transitions to the ECL framework," JM Financial said.
HDFC Bank has fallen 28 per cent in 2026. ITC, Wipro, Infosys and TCS are four stocks falling 30-33 per cent during the same period.