IGL, MGL, Gujarat Gas: Delhi EV policy impact, Nomura shares target prices

With the Delhi Cabinet approving EV Policy 2026–30 on June 29, foreign brokerage Nomura sees CNG facing terminal value risk. Compared with the earlier 2020 EV policy, the new 2026 EV policy is more comprehensive with strict deadlines for EV-only new vehicle registrations, rather than only an incentive-led push earlier, Nomura said. The government has also set an aggressive target of 95 per cent new vehicle registrations to be electric by 2027E, after it missed the target of 25 per cent electric vehicle new registrations by 2024.

The policy would be effective from July `, committing Rs 15,000 crore over a period of four years in the form of subsidies, tax waivers, and charging infrastructure. 

Nomura said the policy marked a structural shift from incentive-led to mandate-led EV adoption. "We believe CGDs may now need to start to aggressively pursue inorganic opportunities to grow volumes given the risk of pollution-led CNG mandates in large cities, it said.

The brokerage has a target of Rs 165 on IGL, Rs 1,142 on MGL and Rs 335 on Gujarat Gas.  

Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL)  Nomura said the policy is structurally negative for IGL's Delhi auto-CNG volume trajectory. CNG two-wheelers are not material for IGL’s CNG volumes, while CNG 3-wheelers sales have been on a structural downtrend -- less than 20 per cent of total 3-wheeler sales, due to faster EV adoption. 

"We think the more significant risk is the car segment, as CNG cars/taxis constitute theWe believe ‘Delhi EV Policy 2026’ is a structural overhang on IGL's auto-CNG new additions trajectory, though near-term earnings impact may not be significant. In our view, IGL's volume growth will increasingly depend on geographic expansion (UP/Haryana Gas), PNG household additions, and LNG diversification, though all these are lower-margin relative to CNG," Nomura said. bulk (65 per cent) of IGL's CNG volumes. Near-term earnings impact appears limited given the existing fleet of vehicles, but new vehicle addition rates should structurally decelerate in Delhi from FY27F onwards, in our view. The PNG domestic (8 per cent of volume in FY26) and industrial/commercial segments (13 per cent of volume in FY26) are unaffected and remain growth," Nomura said.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) 

Nomura expects no direct policy impact to MGL, as it operates predominantly in Maharashtra. However, if Maharashtra follows Delhi's precedent, it believes  MGL might face a similar terminal risk in the future. Mumbai and Thane have still not banned diesel vehicles, that Delhi banned more than a decade ago, which Nomura thinks could be the first to take the hit rather than CNG. 

"Also, Mumbai being a coastal city also allows it to be less stringent in terms of pollution control measures, at least, in the near to medium term. We prefer MGL among the CGDs under our coverage due to its faster volume growth profile, and lower EV-mandate risk in the near to medium term," Nomura said.

Gujarat Gas Ltd Nomura said  Gujarat Gas's volume mix is dominated by industrial and commercial PNG. Auto-CNG is a small share of its portfolio. Therefore, if a similar policy is implemented in Gujarat, it may impact Gujarat Gas the least among its CGD peers.

We believe ‘Delhi EV Policy 2026’ is a structural overhang on IGL's auto-CNG new additions trajectory, though near-term earnings impact may not be significant. In our view, IGL's volume growth will increasingly depend on geographic expansion (UP/Haryana Gas), PNG household additions, and LNG diversification, though all these are lower-margin relative to CNG," Nomura said.