ITC, Swiggy, Eternal, HUL, Dabur, Marico shares: BNP Paribas sees up to 47% upside; target prices

BNP Paribas, in a fresh note on the India consumer sector, said newer entrants in quick commerce (QC) have diverged on discounting, with the focus now shifting towards loyalty and margins. The brokerage sees 47 per cent upside in Swiggy Ltd and 13 per cent in Eternal Ltd.

In the FMCG space, BNP Paribas said raw material cost inflation is getting broad-based and more price hikes may be needed. Among FMCG names, it sees the highest upsides in ITC Ltd, Dabur India Ltd, Britannia Industries Ltd and Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

Swiggy, Eternal share price targets

In the case of QC players, BNP Paribas said Flipkart Minutes seems to have reduced discounting, even as Amazon Now remains aggressive. Free-delivery thresholds have risen and spending is shifting towards loyalty programmes such as Zepto Club. As a result, it said Avenue Supermarts (DMART) is once again the cheapest option.

"At the same time, FMCG input cost pressure has broadened with the spike in agri commodities and a resurgence in crude-linked RM costs. Companies have responded with price hikes / shrinkflation, and more may follow. FMCG seems well poised for sales growth in 2QFY27, but margin pressure is set to continue," BNP Paribas said.

Swiggy's target is set at Rs 390. The foreign brokerage suggested a target of Rs 380 for Eternal.

ITC, Dabur India, HUL price targets

In BPC and home care, 4-14 per cent price hikes are visible across soaps, shampoo and toothpaste SKUs over the last six months. In hair oils, Value-Added Hair Oils (VAHO) continued to see price hikes, while coconut oil prices have decreased. Overall, prices across categories are still below the GST rate cut levels.

"With RM pressure getting more broad-based, more price hikes will likely be needed in the coming months," BNP Paribas said.

The foreign brokerage set a target of Rs 380 on ITC, hinting at 41 per cent upside. Dabur India's target is set at Rs 530 and Britannia Industries' at Rs 6,580, hinting at 33-37 per cent upsides. BNP Paribas set Emami's target at Rs 480, Godrej Consumer's at Rs 1,000, Hindustan Unilever's at Rs 2,450, Marico's at Rs 965 and Nestle India's at Rs 1,560.