Manappuram Finance, Muthoot Finance shares: Antique sees up to 21% upside on two gold loan stocks
India's gold-financing market stood at around Rs 18.6 lakh crore, according to Antique, but remains underpenetrated, with only around 9-10 per cent of household gold pledged as collateral.
- Sep 7, 2026,
- Updated Sep 7, 2026 10:46 AM IST
Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on Manappuram Finance Ltd and Muthoot Finance Ltd, taking a more positive view on the former as both gold loan finance companies are seen benefiting from strong growth in gold loans. The brokerage has given a 'Buy' rating to Manappuram Finance with a target price of Rs 410 apiece, implying 21 per cent potential upside. Muthoot Finance has been rated 'Hold' with a target of Rs 3,110, implying 6 per cent upside.
India's gold-financing market stood at around Rs 18.6 lakh crore, according to Antique, but remains underpenetrated, with only around 9-10 per cent of household gold pledged as collateral. Higher gold prices and tighter availability of unsecured credit have driven strong growth in gold-loan businesses. However, the brokerage expects growth driven purely by rising gold prices to moderate, creating a divergence in the outlook for the two companies.
Manappuram Finance
Antique sees Manappuram Finance at an inflection point, with a combination of business recovery, lower funding costs and a governance reset under Bain Capital. Its gold-loan assets under management grew around 99 per cent YoY in FY26, helped by higher gold prices. The brokerage expects the company's non-gold businesses to recover gradually, reducing their drag on overall earnings.
The brokerage also highlighted Manappuram Finance's digital gold-loan franchise. Around 92 per cent of its gold-loan assets under management were originated online in FY26, while assets under management per branch reached around Rs 13.1 crore, a record for the company. Antique believes this digital scale is beginning to translate into better branch productivity.
Bain Capital's investment is another key part of the thesis. Antique said the transaction addresses concerns around succession and capital allocation and has already led to changes in senior management. The brokerage sees this governance reset as a potential catalyst for a re-rating of the stock.
Antique expects Manappuram Finance's assets under management to grow at around 23 per cent annually between FY26 and FY29, while earnings per share could grow at around 55 per cent annually over the same period. It has initiated coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 410, against a report price of Rs 339.
Muthoot Finance
For Muthoot Finance, Antique sees a higher-quality franchise but relatively limited scope for further valuation re-rating. Muthoot Finance is the largest gold-loan non-banking financial company in India, with standalone assets under management of around Rs 1.7 lakh crore and consolidated assets under management of around Rs 1.9 lakh crore as of the first quarter of FY27.
The company's assets under management rose 50 per cent in FY26, but Antique expects this pace to normalise. In the first quarter of FY27, growth remained strong at 43 per cent YoY, while the yield on its assets under management fell to 17.9 per cent from the previous quarter as unusually high interest recoveries and renewal income faded.
Gold loans now account for around 91 per cent of Muthoot Finance's consolidated assets under management, highlighting the company's continued concentration in the segment. Antique expects genuine diversification outside gold loans to remain limited in the near to medium term.
The brokerage also expects loan growth to moderate as the impact of the sharp rise in gold prices fades. It estimates gold-loan assets under management growth of around 15 per cent annually between FY27 and FY29, with future growth increasingly driven by the quantity of gold pledged rather than further increases in gold prices.
Antique has therefore initiated coverage on Muthoot Finance with a HOLD rating and a target price of Rs 3,110, against a report price of Rs 2,920. The target implies around 6.5 per cent potential upside.
The brokerage's key concern for the sector is that the exceptional growth seen during the gold-price rally may not be repeated. It also expects greater competition from banks and other lenders to put pressure on lending yields. At the same time, it sees more scope for an earnings recovery at Manappuram Finance because of its ongoing business and governance reset.
For Muthoot Finance, Antique believes its strong franchise and branch productivity are already reflected in its valuation, while its high dependence on gold loans and rising competition limit the scope for a further re-rating.
Antique Stock Broking has initiated coverage on Manappuram Finance Ltd and Muthoot Finance Ltd, taking a more positive view on the former as both gold loan finance companies are seen benefiting from strong growth in gold loans. The brokerage has given a 'Buy' rating to Manappuram Finance with a target price of Rs 410 apiece, implying 21 per cent potential upside. Muthoot Finance has been rated 'Hold' with a target of Rs 3,110, implying 6 per cent upside.
India's gold-financing market stood at around Rs 18.6 lakh crore, according to Antique, but remains underpenetrated, with only around 9-10 per cent of household gold pledged as collateral. Higher gold prices and tighter availability of unsecured credit have driven strong growth in gold-loan businesses. However, the brokerage expects growth driven purely by rising gold prices to moderate, creating a divergence in the outlook for the two companies.
Manappuram Finance
Antique sees Manappuram Finance at an inflection point, with a combination of business recovery, lower funding costs and a governance reset under Bain Capital. Its gold-loan assets under management grew around 99 per cent YoY in FY26, helped by higher gold prices. The brokerage expects the company's non-gold businesses to recover gradually, reducing their drag on overall earnings.
The brokerage also highlighted Manappuram Finance's digital gold-loan franchise. Around 92 per cent of its gold-loan assets under management were originated online in FY26, while assets under management per branch reached around Rs 13.1 crore, a record for the company. Antique believes this digital scale is beginning to translate into better branch productivity.
Bain Capital's investment is another key part of the thesis. Antique said the transaction addresses concerns around succession and capital allocation and has already led to changes in senior management. The brokerage sees this governance reset as a potential catalyst for a re-rating of the stock.
Antique expects Manappuram Finance's assets under management to grow at around 23 per cent annually between FY26 and FY29, while earnings per share could grow at around 55 per cent annually over the same period. It has initiated coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 410, against a report price of Rs 339.
Muthoot Finance
For Muthoot Finance, Antique sees a higher-quality franchise but relatively limited scope for further valuation re-rating. Muthoot Finance is the largest gold-loan non-banking financial company in India, with standalone assets under management of around Rs 1.7 lakh crore and consolidated assets under management of around Rs 1.9 lakh crore as of the first quarter of FY27.
The company's assets under management rose 50 per cent in FY26, but Antique expects this pace to normalise. In the first quarter of FY27, growth remained strong at 43 per cent YoY, while the yield on its assets under management fell to 17.9 per cent from the previous quarter as unusually high interest recoveries and renewal income faded.
Gold loans now account for around 91 per cent of Muthoot Finance's consolidated assets under management, highlighting the company's continued concentration in the segment. Antique expects genuine diversification outside gold loans to remain limited in the near to medium term.
The brokerage also expects loan growth to moderate as the impact of the sharp rise in gold prices fades. It estimates gold-loan assets under management growth of around 15 per cent annually between FY27 and FY29, with future growth increasingly driven by the quantity of gold pledged rather than further increases in gold prices.
Antique has therefore initiated coverage on Muthoot Finance with a HOLD rating and a target price of Rs 3,110, against a report price of Rs 2,920. The target implies around 6.5 per cent potential upside.
The brokerage's key concern for the sector is that the exceptional growth seen during the gold-price rally may not be repeated. It also expects greater competition from banks and other lenders to put pressure on lending yields. At the same time, it sees more scope for an earnings recovery at Manappuram Finance because of its ongoing business and governance reset.
For Muthoot Finance, Antique believes its strong franchise and branch productivity are already reflected in its valuation, while its high dependence on gold loans and rising competition limit the scope for a further re-rating.