Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 57 pts; key levels to watch

Indian shares were expected to start the week on a muted note on Monday, extending the cautious sentiment seen last week, as a lack of progress towards ending the Iran war kept crude ‌ oil prices elevated. Iran called on the US to accept defeat on Saturday, while President Donald Trump called Tehran 'evil' and told ⁠Americans to prepare for continued high fuel prices amid the war.

Indian equities may remain range-bound next week as global cues and macro developments assume greater importance following the conclusion of the Q1FY27 earnings season. Stock-specific action may become more selective. Developments in West Asia, crude oil prices and global sentiment will remain the key near-term drivers, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 56.60 points, or 0.23 per cent, down at 24,393, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares drifted sideways on Monday as investors kept a wary eye on oil prices. KOSPI rose 2.5 per cent, while Hang Seng gained 1.6 per cent. Nikkei was up marginally, almost flat.

US Stocks settled mixed on Friday investors digested weaker-than-expected retail sales data. The S&P 500 declined 0.17 per cent to end the session at 7,785.76 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.28 per cent to 26,729.16 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.20 per cent to 53,732.41 points. 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Brent crude was steady at $88.50 a barrel after rising 6 per cent last week, while US crude slipped 0.3 per cent to $82.12 a barrel. Ten-year yields slipped 1 basis point to 4.684 per cent. The soft run of data has weighed on the US dollar. The dollar index is trading near its lowest levels of the month at 99.519. In commodity markets, gold held steady at $4,381 an ounce.

The market enters the coming week with a cautious outlook as elevated crude prices, geopolitical risks and global monetary policy expectations continue to influence sentiment, said  Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Investors should maintain a stock-specific approach and favour companies with strong earnings visibility, healthy balance sheets and resilient margins," he said.

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 508.12 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 356.40 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pumped Rs 16,621 crore in the Indian equites in the first half of August 2026.

FIIs sold heavily through the first two weeks in the last one month. Investors will closely track crude oil price movements in the coming week and developments in the ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. A genuine improvement in foreign tone, despite that buying, said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook Nifty on the weekly chart formed a reasonable negative candle this week after the formation of doji type weekly pattern at the highs in last week. This signals a false upside breakout of a crucial hurdle around 24,500-24,600 levels. The consistent higher bottom formation was seen over the last couple of months, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"Present weakness could be in line with the new higher bottom formation. Hence some more consolidation is likely in the coming sessions. Further weakness from here could drag Nifty down to the next lower supports around 24,200-24,000 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,500 levels," it adds.

Sensex continues to trade above its 50-Day EMA, while remaining below the 200-Day EMA, keeping the near-term structure range-bound with a mixed bias. RSI at 53.12 remains above the midpoint, indicating moderate momentum. Immediate support is placed at 77,400–77,600, while resistance is seen at 78,300–78,500, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

"It remains range-bound with a cautious bias as it trades above the 50-Day EMA but below the 200-Day EMA. Sustaining above the 77,400–77,600 support zone can keep the recovery structure intact, while a decisive move above 78,300–78,500 would strengthen the near-term outlook. A buy-on-dips approach remains preferable," it adds.

The RSI remains at 52, reflecting a neutral stance, although momentum has moderated during the recent pullback. India VIX settled at 11.30, indicating subdued volatility, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank formed a small-body candle with wicks on either side, indicating indecision. A flat RSI and ADX suggest a lack of strong directional momentum & volatility, indicating that the index continues to remain in a phase of consolidation, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,900-58,000 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,400, followed by 58,800 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,100-57,000 zone," it added.

Nifty Bank continues to consolidate within a range of 57,200–58,000 levels, with the index finding support near 57,200 and facing resistance around 58,000. The overall setup suggests a range-bound outlook, supported by a relatively flat RSI, indicating limited directional momentum, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

"Hence, traders may adopt a levels-based approach until a decisive breakout or breakdown emerges. Support for Nifty Bank is placed at 57,200, while 58,000 remains the key resistance level. A sustained move beyond either level could provide further directional cues," it adds.