Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 170 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised for a cautiously positive start, with investor sentiment improving after US President Donald Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran are expected to resume on Monday, reviving hopes of a diplomatic resolution following recent military tensions. Upbeat Q1 earnings by India Inc also supported the sentiments.

Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias as healthy domestic macros, and a strong Q1FY27 earnings season continue to support investor confidence, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Market participants will closely monitor RBI's monetary policy decision, India's PMI data, along with in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 166.90 points, or 0.68 per cent, up at 24,619.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks were mixed in early trade. KOSPI tumbled nearly 4 per cent, while Nikkei was down 2 per cent. Hang Seng crept higher.

Wall Street ended higher on Friday, lifted by tech heavyweight's strong quarterly report bolstered investor confidence in AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 climbed 0.70 per cent to end the session at 7,489.72 points. The Nasdaq gained 1 per cent to 25,373.85 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53 per cent to 52,485.03 points.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Oil prices skidded and stocks wobbled on Monday as hopes of peace in the Middle East grew. Brent crude futures sank over 6 per cent to $82.41 after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran will happen on Monday. The rupee closed at 95.38 on Friday, posting its biggest weekly gain since March. Gold prices continue to hold firm, 

The fragile nature of the US–Iran truce, potential volatility in crude oil prices, and the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision warrant a balanced approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Maintaining disciplined position sizing and prudent risk management will remain essential amid the possibility of sharp moves."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 277.48 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,260.37 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs made a strong comeback in July 2026 as the pumped more than 20,200 crore into the Indian equities.

FII selling has moderated significantly over past months, indicating a steady improvement in overseas investor sentiment, said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking. "After witnessing record-high outflows earlier in 2026, the pace of selling has eased considerably, with July recording the lowest monthly outflow of the year."

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook Market has formed a long bullish candle on the daily charts and is holding a higher high and higher low series formation on intraday charts, supporting a further uptrend from the current levels. For trend-following traders, the 20-day SMA (around 24,130/77300 and 24,000/76900) would act as key support zones, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"Above these levels, bullish momentum may continue. On the higher side, 24,500-24,550/78500-78700 would serve as immediate resistance zones. A successful breakout of 24,550/78700 could push the market towards 24,700/79200," he added. Below 24,000/76900, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Traders may consider exiting long positions if the market falls below this level."

Sensex continues to maintain a positive structure, with 77,800–77,600 acting as the immediate support zone. As long as it holds above this range, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking. "On the upside, 78,300–78,500 remains the immediate resistance zone, and a sustained breakout above these levels could trigger the next leg of the rally towards 78,800–79,000."

Nifty50 has now closed above its 200 DEMA and swing-high resistance, reinforcing the near-term positive bias. Next resistance is seen at 24,530, followed by 24,778 (200-day SMA). Support remains intact around 24,100, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank continues to oscillate between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trend. The RSI has flattened, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum. The ADX also remains flat, indicating weak trend strength and subdued volatility, said  Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. 

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty Bank is placed in the 57,500-57,600 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,000, followed by 58,400 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,700-56,600 zone," it added.

Bank Nifty is also moving in a sideways range with a slightly negative bias. The 57,400 level is the immediate hurdle, and a sustained move above it could trigger an upmove towards 58,300 and 58,600. On the downside, 56,500 is the first support, followed by 56,000 and 55,555 as the next key support levels, said  Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart.