Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 23 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are expected to open on a cautious note, with improving global sentiment and sustained institutional buying likely to extend the recent recovery. Investor confidence has been bolstered by signs of easing geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran remain underway, resulting in the fall in crude oil prices.

The Indian market started the week on a strong footing and is expected to maintain a positive bias, supported by encouraging earnings, easing crude oil prices and improving global risk sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Investor sentiment improved after the US that negotiations with Iran were expected to resume, raising hopes of a diplomatic resolution following recent military tensions."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 22.60 points, or 0.00 per cent, up at 24,672, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian markets made cautious gains at the start of trading as investors followed a global rally. Nikkei and KOSPI were down in early trade, falling 1-2 per cent, while Hang Seng was seen half a per cent high.

US stocks kicked off August on a strong note as signs of de-escalating US-Iran tensions pulled ‌down oil prices and Treasury yields in a busy week for earnings and economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 693.38 points, or 1.32 per cent, to 53,178.41, the S&P 500 jumped 110.78 points, or 1.48 per cent, to 7,600.50 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 540.04 points, or 2.13 per cent, to 25,913.90.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Oil prices made limited gains as trading resumed in Asia, with Brent crude up 0.6 per cent at $84.29 a barrel. The US dollar index was pinned near the lowest levels of the past two months ⁠at 99.99. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.2 basis point at 4.684 per cent. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin slipped 0.5 per cent to $63,446.35.

Investor sentiment improved after Brent crude prices declined sharply following renewed optimism over diplomatic talks involving the US and Iran, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We advocate a 'buy-on-dips' strategy, with a preference for relatively stronger sectors such as banking, financials, auto, and realty, while maintaining disciplined overnight risk management."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 922.26 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,571.18 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook Nifty witnessed an excellent breakout. A small range movement was seen after a gap up opening, which indicates that Nifty has broken out of the crucial overhead resistance of around 24,400-24,500 levels decisively. This is a positive indication, said  Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"We observe few unfilled opening upside gaps in the last 6-7 sessions up move which signals strength of a recent bounce back from the lows. The underlying trend of Nifty remains positive and the next upside levels to be watched are around 24,800-25,000 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,400," he added.

Sensex continues to maintain a positive structure, with 77,800–77,600 acting as the immediate support zone. As long as the it holds above this range, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish, said Sachin Gupta, VP- Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking. "On the upside, 78,300–78,500 remains the immediate resistance zone, and a sustained breakout above these levels could trigger the next leg of the rally towards 78,800–79,000."

From the Derivatives perspective, India VIX declined to 11.81, indicating that market volatility remains well contained despite the recent advance. The option chain continues to reflect a constructive setup, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank is indicating a phase of range-bound price action. It continues to oscillate between its 20-day & 50-day EMAs, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trend. The RSI has flattened, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum. The ADX remains flat, indicating weak trend strength and subdued volatility, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500-57,600 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its pullback towards 58,000, followed by 58,400 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,700-56,600 zone," he said.

Nifty Bank witnessed a positive technical breakout as the index reclaimed its 20-DMA and 200-DMA on the daily chart while closing with a bullish candlestick, indicating improving market sentiment. The index also surpassed the crucial resistance of 57,500, reinforcing the positive outlook, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

"The RSI has entered a bullish crossover, reflecting strengthening momentum. Based on these developments, the overall bias remains bullish, and a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable. Immediate support is placed at 57,450–57,400, while resistance is seen at 58,200 and 58,500, with the index likely to test the 58,500 level in the near term," he adds.