NSE share price targets: Two more Buy ratings, 12th since listing day; what MOFSL, JM say

National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE) has received two fresh 'Buy' recommendations, with targets suggesting 19-22 per cent potential upside from the prevailing price. Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has set a target of Rs 2,300, while JM Financial's target is slightly higher at Rs 2,310. With these additions, India's largest stock exchange has attracted 12 'Buy' or 'Overweight' calls since the listing day (September 24), with the highest target of Rs 2,315 from Morgan Stanley.

On Monday, the NSE stock was quoting at Rs 1,934.45, up 0.20 per cent on BSE.   

NSE commands a 93 per cent share of cash equity average daily turnover (ADTO), 100 per cent of equity futures and 75 per cent of options premium turnover in FY26. Its clearing arm settles 88-91 per cent of industry value. Besides, NSE's Nifty indices anchor a bulk of index fund and ETF assets. NSE converts this liquidity into a 75 per cent-plus Ebitda margin, supported by a debt-free, capital-light balance sheet, JM Financial said.

The brokerage said the single-weekly-expiry framework, higher contract sizes, two increases in securities transaction tax (STT) and the arrival of a credible competitor in index options had led to a decline in NSE's options premium share from 97 per cent in FY24 to 75 per cent in FY26 and 68 per cent in FY27TD. The competitor's gains have been concentrated on its own expiry days, it said.

NSE's revenue fell 3 per cent in FY26, and JM Financial has modelled a further 3 per cent decline for FY27E.

"Beyond the reset, growth is broad-based. Cash equities and colocation, 17 per cent of FY26 revenue, steadily rise to 24 per cent by FY29E in our model. With one-off costs out of the base, we reckon FY26-29E revenue, Ebitda and EPS CAGR would be 8 per cent, 12 per cent and 14 per cent, with growth reaccelerating to 14-15 per cent over FY28-29E on 20 per cent annual cash ADTO growth and adding co-location racks every year," it said.

MOFSL said India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio stood at 131 per cent in FY25, against 216 per cent in the US and 157 per cent in Japan. Matching the US ratio would imply 1.65 times the current listed market capitalisation. The brokerage added that demat accounts reached 24.10 crore by September, equivalent to 17 per cent of the population, indicating structural headroom for growth.

India's active participation rate of 3 per cent is also low compared with other emerging markets. As financial literacy, digital onboarding and distribution improve, participation could rise structurally over the years, MOFSL said.

"NSE is India's largest exchange by turnover in the cash market (ADTO of Rs 1.1 lakh crore) and in equity derivatives (futures ADTO of Rs 1.6 lakh crore and options premium ADTO of Rs 57,700 crore in FY26). Its active client base of 4.6 crore in Sep'26 represents only 3 per cent of India's population. The number of investors aged less than 30 years rose from 22.6 per cent of NSE's individual investor base in FY19 to 38.4 per cent in FY26," MOFSL said.

Bloomberg data showed JPMorgan has 'Overweight' on the  stock with a target of Rs 2,130. Kotak's target on the stock stands at Rs 2,200. Asian Markets Securities, Equirus Securities, Centrum and Jefferies have targets in Rs 2,125-2,170 range.

MOFSL expects NSE's revenue to rise from Rs 16,600 crore in FY26 to Rs 23,400 crore in FY29E, with Ebitda clocking a 13 per cent CAGR over FY26-29 and margins expanding to 77 per cent by FY29.

NSE's PAT should reach Rs 15,000 crore, reflecting a FY26-29E CAGR of 13 per cent, while return on equity (RoE) should recover to 43 per cent by FY29 from 30 per cent in FY26, MOFSL said.