RIL shares hit 52-week low; analysts see up to 47% upside on refining margin recovery

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) could regain a structural gross refining margin (GRM) premium over domestic public sector undertaking (PSU) refiners as Venezuelan crude supplies recover and discounts on Russian Urals narrow, according to YES Securities.

The brokerage said Jamnagar's historical margin advantage was driven by access to discounted Venezuelan heavy crude, complex refining capabilities and integrated logistics. However, this premium has narrowed in recent years due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil, refinery upgrades by PSU peers and the wider availability of discounted Russian crude in India.

YES Securities now models a sustainable structural GRM premium of $3 per barrel for RIL over domestic PSU refiners, with scope for further upside to its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and free cash flow.  

RIL share price Shares of Reliance Industries settled at Rs 1,159 on Monday, falling more than 1 per cent during the session. The stock touched a 52-week low of Rs 1,153.10 intraday, taking its market capitalisation to around Rs 15.68 lakh crore. RIL shares are down 28 per cent from their 52-week high of Rs 1,611.20, recorded in January 2026.

Venezuelan crude supplies return Historically, Jamnagar processed 300,000–400,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan Merey-16 crude, giving RIL a raw-material cost advantage. These volumes fell to negligible levels between 2021 and 2023 following US sanctions.

YES Securities said Venezuelan crude flows are now moving back towards historical levels through intermediaries authorised by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This could restore RIL's access to discounted heavy, high-sulphur crude, although supplies remain subject to licensing conditions.

Jamnagar's refining complexity advantage The brokerage said Jamnagar's delayed coking units, hydrocracking capacity and petroleum coke gasification complex enable the refinery to process high-sulphur, high-total-acid-number (TAN) and metal-heavy crude while minimising residual fuel oil output.

It added that the refinery's captive syngas production also reduces its dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), supporting cost efficiencies across its integrated operations.

Earnings sensitivity RIL's annual throughput of around 70 million metric tonnes means every $1-per-barrel increase in blended GRM could lift annual EBITDA by approximately Rs 4,200 crore, according to YES Securities.

The brokerage said Venezuelan heavy crude accounting for 25–35 per cent of the crude slate could strengthen feedstock arbitrage benefits, while integration with the gasification complex could further support margins.

If these factors translate into a $2–3-per-barrel improvement in blended GRM, the potential annualised O2C EBITDA uplift could reach Rs 8,400–12,600 crore, according to the brokerage's estimates. A sustained improvement could also strengthen free cash flow.

RIL target prices YES Securities has a 'buy' rating on Reliance Industries, with a target price of Rs 1,660. This implies an upside potential of around 43 per cent from the stock's latest closing price of Rs 1,159.

Among other brokerages, PL Capital, Nomura and Systematix Institutional Equities also have 'buy' ratings on the stock, with target prices of Rs 1,675, Rs 1,690 and Rs 1,700, respectively.