Up 750% in 5 yrs! Elara initiates coverage on Adani stock; check targets, ratings, Q2 preview & more

Domestic brokerage firm Elara Capital has initiated coverage on Adani Power Ltd, stating that thermal power is likely to remain critical to India’s near- to medium-term power security, supporting the company’s long-term growth prospects. According to Elara Capital, Adani Power’s 24GW locked-in expansion pipeline provides strong growth visibility, taking its capacity from 18.3GW to 42GW.

Elara said around 60 per cent of the pipeline is brownfield, which should help accelerate execution and lower project costs. Meanwhile, 55 per cent of the locked-in expansion, or 13.3GW, is already backed by long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). The brokerage described thermal generation as the backbone of India’s power system, saying it provides reliable baseload supply, offsets renewable energy intermittency and helps maintain grid stability.

It added that higher renewable energy penetration would require complementary investments in battery energy storage systems and pumped storage. Transmission constraints and rising grid-balancing requirements also reinforce the demand for firm power. Against this backdrop, Elara said coal would remain important to India’s energy security, with the country targeting the addition of about 80GW of coal-based capacity by FY32.

Elara said Adani Power, which it identified as India’s largest private thermal power generator, operates 18.3GW of capacity across 13 assets, largely comprising supercritical and ultra-supercritical plants. It also highlighted the company’s acquisition-led turnaround strategy, citing Udupi Power, Coastal Energen and Lanco Amarkantak as examples of stressed or underutilised assets that were acquired and revived.

Elara said the remaining uncontracted expansion capacity offers scope for merchant power upside, while Adani Power continues to pursue thermal power opportunities through upcoming state-level bids. However, it added that the stock has risen 27 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and outperformed the BSE Utilities Index, with a significant part of its medium-term growth opportunity already reflected in the current valuation.

Adani Power share price Shares of Adani Power were trading largely unchanged on Monday, in the range of Rs 187–190, giving the company a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 3.6 lakh crore. The stock has fallen more than 26 per cent from its 52-week high of Rs 254.15, hit in May 2026. However, it has delivered multibagger returns over the longer term, rising 750 per cent over the past five years.

Q2 previews JM Financial expects Adani Power’s power generation to grow 21 per cent YoY, driven by capacity expansion and elevated demand. It estimates revenue to rise 29 per cent YoY, while EBITDA may increase 20 per cent and profit 13 per cent. However, earnings and margins may remain under pressure sequentially.

Revenue is expected to rise 22 per cent YoY, driven by higher generation volumes, partly offset by a 25 per cent YoY decline in merchant volumes as open capacity shifts to medium-term contracts, said Motilal Oswal. “EBITDA is seen at Rs 5,650 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 57 per cent. PAT is likely to rise 6 per cent YoY and 35 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ),” it added.

Adani Power target price Elara Capital has initiated coverage on Adani Power with an ‘accumulate’ rating and a target price of Rs 220. Motilal Oswal and PL Capital have ‘buy’ ratings on the stock, with target prices of Rs 250 and Rs 259, respectively. Bernstein has an ‘outperform’ rating with a target price of Rs 220. Morgan Stanley and Jefferies have positive views on the stock, with target prices of Rs 270 each, while Antique Stock Broking has set a target price of Rs 282.