Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 150 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are to open on a positive note, supported by lower crude oil prices and improving global risk sentiment. Continued progress in the US–Iran negotiations has strengthened hopes of a diplomatic resolution, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions and providing support to risk assets.

Indian equity markets may witness a gradual up move on the back of positive global cues. Central banks in both India and the US remain focused on containing inflation, supporting overall market sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "AI and geopolitical overhangs continue to weigh on discretionary spending and decision-making cycles."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 148.50 points, or 0.61 per cent, up at 24,413.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Stocks made a mixed start ​to the Asian trading session on Friday. KOSPI and Hang Seng gained nearly 2 per cent each, while Nikkei gained nearly half a per cent.

The US stocks settled mixed on Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend as a softer-than-expected US ‌jobs report eased worries about interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 594.83 points, or 1.14 per cent, to 52,900.07, the S&P 500 gained 0.01 points to 7,483.24 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 207.36 points, or 0.80 per cent, to 25,832.67.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more The greenback clawed back some strength after a twitchy ​session on Thursday. The US dollar index was steady at 100.98. In commodities, Brent crude futures slipped 0.4 per cent to $71.49 as trading resumed in Asia. Gold was up 0.1 per cent at $4,125.49. In cryptocurrencies, ​bitcoin was down 0.4 per cent at $61,306.45.

The positive undertone was supported by the continued decline in Brent crude prices, following progress in the US-Iran talks. The rebound in the IT pack further strengthened sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We maintain a positive stance and recommend a 'buy-on-dips' approach, focusing on relatively stronger stocks while maintaining disciplined risk management."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 311.82  crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,784.40 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook Technically, the market held positive momentum throughout the day, after a gap-up open. It has formed a bullish candle on daily charts, and it is maintaining an uptrend continuation pattern on intraday charts, which is largely positive, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For day traders, 24,075/77,200 would act as key support zones. Above these levels, the market could continue its positive momentum towards 24,250-24,375 / 77,800-78,200. Conversely, below 24,075/77,200, sentiment could turn negative. In that case, the market could retest levels of 23,980-23,900 / 76,900-76,500," he adds.

Sensex formed a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart, indicating sustained buying interest and continuation of the ongoing uptrend, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "76,900–77,000 will act as the immediate support zone. As long as the index sustains above this level, the positive momentum is likely to continue. On the upside, 78,000–78,200 remains the immediate resistance zone."

Nifty has broken out of its recent consolidation, indicating improving market sentiment. The index is sustaining above its critical moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend. The trend is likely to remain positive, with the index having the potential to advance towards 24,300–24,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,000, said  Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

India VIX declined 8 per cent to close near 12, reflecting easing volatility and providing further support to the bullish sentiment, said  Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank formed a bearish candle on the daily chart with shadows on both sides, indicating indecisiveness among market participants and a lack of strong directional conviction. The broader trend remains firmly positive as the index continues to trade comfortably above its key short-term and long-term moving averages, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the 58,400-58,500 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle. A decisive and sustainable move above 58,500 could trigger fresh buying momentum, paving the way for a sharp upside rally towards the 59,100 level, followed by 59,600 in the short term. The 57,600-57,500 zone is expected to act as a crucial support area. The bullish undertone is likely to remain intact," he added.

Nifty Bank formed a small bear candle with an upper shadow signaling consolidation amid stock specific action around the 58,000. Going ahead, a move above last week high of 58,700 will open further upside towards 59,200 and 60,000 level in the coming weeks, being the 138.2 per cent and 150 per cent external retracement of the previous decline from 57,456 to 52,783, Bajaj Broking.

"Failure to move above last week's high is likely to keep the index consolidating within the 57,000–58,500 range. The lows of the last two weeks are almost identical around the 57,000 marks, making it a crucial short-term support level. The overall bias remains positive, hence the current breather should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in staggered manner for the next leg of up move," it added.