Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 20 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely open on a positive note on Thursday as investors weigh an increasingly supportive domestic backdrop against mixed global cues. Global risk sentiment remains balanced rather than exuberant. The macroeconomic narrative has become incrementally more favourable over recent weeks. 

Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias, supported by Brent crude prices, improving the outlook for inflation and corporate margins. With the RBI maintaining its policy stance and with the ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season, stock-specific action is expected to remain the dominant market theme, said  Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 58.30 points, or 0.24 per cent, up at 24,706, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares took a ​breather on Thursday after an AI-driven surge the previous day.

The Dow closed at a record on Wednesday on signs of progress ​for a peace deal with Iran, while the Nasdaq saw its first decline in five sessions as SpaceX and AMD stumbled following their quarterly ‌earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49 per cent to 54,349.06, the S&P 500 shed 0.17 per cent to 7,723.52 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.83 per cent to 26,363.44.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more ​Oil prices were steady in the $70-a-barrel range. Brent crude futures fell to $79.31 per barrel, down 0.18 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate futures edged 0.35 per cent down to $74.96 a barrel. Spot gold rose 1.06 per cent to $4,290.26 an ounce, while spot silver gained 0.65 per cent to $62.48 an ounce. Currency markets drifted on Thursday.

Investor sentiment remained largely positive after the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged and retained its neutral policy stance. Participants were watchful of geopolitical cues and in crude oil prices, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to advocate a 'buy-on-dips' strategy, preferring relatively stronger sectors while maintaining disciplined risk management."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,883.17 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 943.42 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook The market is witnessing range-bound activity. For traders, short-term support is placed at 24,500-24,450/78,200-78,000, while 24,700-24,750/78,900-79,000 remains the crucial resistance area for the bulls, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. 

"We believe that, as long as the market is trading between these ranges, a range-bound texture  is likely to continue. On the higher side, a breakout above 24,750/79,000 could push the market towards 24,850-24,900/79,300-79,500. On the flip side, a dismissal of 24,450/78,000 could push the market towards 24,300/77,500," it adds.

Nifty stayed on the sidelines. On the downside, 24,500 acted as a key support level, while the index failed to sustain above 24,700 during the day, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Nifty remains largely range-bound. Immediate support is placed at 24,400, while 24,800 remains the crucial resistance level. A decisive move above 24,800 could trigger a meaningful rally."

Sensex continues to trade above its 20-Day, 50-Day and 100-Day EMA, while remaining below the 200-Day EMA, indicating that the short-to-medium-term trend remains constructive, although a decisive breakout above the long-term moving average is still awaited, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

From the Derivatives perspective, India VIX declined to 12.06, reflecting subdued volatility and improving market confidence among the traders, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank has struggled to sustain at higher levels. However, it has managed to hold above its 20-day EMA over the past two sessions, suggesting that the near-term bullish structure remains intact despite the ongoing profit booking, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty Bank is placed in the 58,100-58,200 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,600, followed by 59,000 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,400-57,300 zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed an inside bar candle with wicks on both sides, indicating indecision after the recent phase of profit booking. It found support near its 20-day EMA, suggesting buying interest at lower levels despite stock-specific action. It continues to consolidate within the broader 56,500–58,700 range that has been in place over the past seven weeks, said Bajaj Broking.

"A decisive breakout above 58,700 would signal a resumption of the uptrend. The index may remain range-bound with a stock-specific bias. On the downside, the 57,400  20-day EMA zone is expected to act as the immediate support, followed by the 57,000–56,800 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 58,000–58,100," it adds.