Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 3 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note following the renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The firm US dollar weighs on the emerging currencies like the Indian rupee but the crude oil prices around $70-72 a barrel provide some cushion. However, the fresh flare may add to some volatility in the Indian markets.

Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias, with the Nifty sustaining above the 24,000, supported by firm geopolitical cues, soft crude oil prices and strengthening rupee, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Favourable global cues and easing commodity prices are expected to support market sentiment."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 6.80 points, or 0.03 per cent, up at 24,095.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks wobbled on Monday as Iran and the US agreed to halt recent hostilities that had cast a shadow over an interim peace deal. Nikkei and KOSPI dropped a per cent each, while Hang Seng inched higher.

The US stocks ended marginally lower on Friday, with a steep drop in AI-related chip stocks and sharp gains in Modena and other healthcare stocks. The Nasdaq declined 0.24 per cent to 25,297.62 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.09 per cent to 51,876.11 points. The S&P 500 declined 0.05 per cent to end the session at 7,353.95 points.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Worries over the future of the peace deal lifted oil prices. Brent crude futures climbed 0.85 per cent to $72.6 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose over 1 per cent to $70.01 a barrel. The strengthening dollar has weighed on gold, which was down 0.4 per cent at $4,072 per ounce.  Rising odds of a rate hike have lifted the dollar, with the dollar index at 101.33, just below the one-year high.

The overall market tone has improved following the sharp correction in crude oil prices and the return of selective FII buying, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should continue to focus on fundamentally strong companies within healthy balance sheets, robust earnings visibility, and improving relative strength," it added.

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 383.76 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,747.75 crore on a net-net basis.

Given steady global cues, easing crude and a resilient domestic macro backdrop, expect a cautiously positive near-term outlook: range-bound upside with sectoral leadership from financials, tech and select cyclicals, but keep an eye on global risk sentiment and earnings cues for directional conviction, said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook Sensex managed to hold above the crucial 77,000 mark, indicating that the near-term undertone remains positive despite the lack of broad-based participation. Immediate resistance is placed by the 77,800-78,000 zone, which remains a key hurdle for the bulls. A decisive breakout above this resistance band could strengthen bullish momentum, said  Aakash Shah, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking.

"On the downside, the 76,200-76,400 zone is expected to act as a strong support area and may continue to attract buying interest from positional investors. A sustained move below this support band could trigger renewed consolidation and result in short-term profit booking. The session was characterised by stock-specific buying with investors selectively accumulating quality names," he said.

The market found support near its 50-day SMA and reversed sharply. It faced a profit booking resistance zone. The market has formed a range-bound pattern. It has been supported near the 50-day SMA or 23,800/76,200 on the downside, while facing consistent selling pressure near the 24,200-24,250/77,800-78,000 resistance level, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"For positional traders, 24,000/77,000 would act as an immediate support zone. The market could retest 24,200/77,800. A successful breakout of 24,200/77,800 could push the market towards 24,400-24,500/78,400-78,700. On the flip side, below 24,000/77,000, the market could slip to 23,800/76,200. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging it to 23,650/75700," he added.

The trend continues to remain positive, with the index sustaining above the 50-EMA. The momentum indicator RSI remains in a positive crossover, indicating strengthening momentum. In the short term, the trend is likely to stay positive as long as it holds above the support level of 23,800. On the higher end, the Nifty may move towards 24,500, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank formed a small-body candle with a minor upper wick, reflecting its inability to sustain at higher levels. The broader trend remains constructive as Nifty Bank gave a consolidation breakout and continues to trade above its key short and long-term moving averages. The ADX is gradually moving higher, signalling strengthening trend momentum, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty Bank is placed in the 58,600-58,700 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its up move towards 59,100, followed by 59,500 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,700-57,600 zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a small bearish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. Going ahead bias remains positive and index to gradually head towards 59,200 levels in the coming sessions being the 138.2 per cent external retracement of the previous decline 57,456-52,783, said Bajaj Broking Research.

 "The last two weeks lows are almost identical, placed around 57,000 levels. Hence, immediate bias remains positive above the same. The daily 14 period RSI remains in uptrend and is seen rebounding taking support at its nine periods average thus supporting positive bias," it added.