Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 95 points; key levels to watch

Indian shares are likely to open higher on Thursday, as crude oil prices dropped after Qatar said Iran and the US made 'positive progress' in indirect talks ‌that concluded on Wednesday. Signs of progress in peace talks pushed oil prices lower, which is positive for India. Caution is likely to persist over ‌foreign ⁠flows, as overseas investors remained sellers of Indian equities 

Indian equities are expected to consolidate with a cautious bias as investors await greater clarity on the US-Iran negotiations and the commencement of June-quarter business updates, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Resilient domestic fundamentals and easing input costs should provide downside support," he said.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 94.00 points, or 0.39 per cent, up at 24,187.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares skidded on Thursday, while currency and bond markets braced for US jobs data. KOSPI dropped nearly 3 per cent, while Nikkei was down a per cent. Hang Seng was up a per cent.

The US stocks finished slightly lower on Wednesday as technology shares fell, but gains in Meta Platforms limited the decline in the S&P ‌500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13.96 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 52,305.24, the S&P 500 lost 16.13 points, or 0.22%, to 7,483.23 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 173.69 points, or 0.66 per cent, to 26,040.03.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more Oil prices hit ‌new four-month lows, with Brent crude off 0.8 per cent to $71 a barrel, as US said talks with Iran had gone well in Qatar, and as more oil tankers transited through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold bounced 0.5 per cent to $4,050 an ounce following a very tough quarter. Higher Treasury yields kept the US dollar supported as the dollar index eased 0.02 per cent to 101.38.

The gains remained measured due to lingering uncertainty surrounding the progress of the US-Iran peace negotiations and concerns over the domestic monsoon, Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a stock-specific approach, focusing on relative outperformers across sectors."

FII-DII flows Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,140.50 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,159.24 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook Technically, the market has formed a small bullish candle on daily charts, and it is holding a reversal formation on intraday charts. For day traders, 23,900/76,500 would act as a key support level. Above this, bullish momentum is likely to continue. On the higher side, the market could move till 24,150-24,250/77,500-77,800, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the flip side, below 23,900/76,500, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, it could retest 23,800/76,200 and the 20-day SMA or 23,750/76,000. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," it adds.

Sensex formed a small bullish candlestick on the daily chart, indicating sustained buying interest after the recent breakout, said  Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "It continues to trade above its 20-Day EMA after the recent breakout above the falling trendline, keeping the short-term trend positive. The RSI is  suggesting improving momentum."

Despite the sideways movement, the short-term trend remains positive, with the index showing resilience throughout the session, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. The bullish bias is likely to remain intact as long as the Nifty holds above the 23,800 support level. It may continue its slow but steady upward trajectory, with the potential to move towards 24,200."

Nifty Bank outlook Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. Despite the recent consolidation, it continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, reflecting a positive underlying trend. The RSI also edged higher from around the 60 level, indicating a modest improvement in bullish momentum, said  Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,400-58,500 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,900, followed by 59,300 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,600-57,500 zone," he adds.

Nifty Bank has formed a bullish candlesticks pattern on the daily chart, with a higher high and a higher low highlighting buying demand around the recent breakout area. A move above last week high of 58,700 will open further upside towards 59,200 and 60,000 level in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"Failure to move above last week's high is likely to keep the index consolidating within the 57,000–58,500 range. The lows of the last two weeks are almost identical around the 57,000 mark, making it a crucial short-term support level. The overall bias remains positive and the current breather should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in staggered manner for the next leg," it adds.