Real estate outlook: Expert sees selective real estate bets as HNIs, family offices turn to alternatives

India’s real estate investment market is entering 2026 with a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and rising interest from high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), family offices and institutional investors. Chirag Mehta, Founder of Arbour Investments, said the firm remains constructive on the sector, while emphasising disciplined selection, governance and execution as key to generating risk-adjusted returns.

Mehta said Arbour’s growth has been driven by a multi-strategy model spanning private credit, private equity and integrated development. The company has deployed more than ₹770 crore across real estate private credit in markets including Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai. Its private equity portfolio includes Justo Realfintech Ltd, which was listed on the BSE SME exchange in October 2025.

“Everything we do rests on three pillars, trust, transparency and integrity,” Mehta said, adding that vertical integration allows the company to remain involved from land and underwriting through construction and exit. He said the approach helps the firm maintain control over execution rather than relying entirely on external partners.

Housing, offices and data centres in focus

On the investment outlook, Mehta identified residential mid-income and affordable housing as attractive segments, supported by end-user demand. In commercial real estate, Grade-A offices, data centres and warehousing are expected to benefit from India’s expanding digital and logistics infrastructure.

The firm remains positive on Tier 1 cities such as Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai, NCR and Hyderabad, along with select growth corridors around these markets. According to Mehta, infrastructure investment, employment and migration are supporting demand, although returns are likely to vary significantly across micro-markets.

“The tailwind is broad, but returns will cluster around specific micro-markets, specific asset classes and specific developers,” he said.

Technology strengthens investment process

Arbour is looking to deepen its existing three investment strategies rather than expand its product portfolio indiscriminately. Mehta said integrated development offers scope for further growth, while credit and equity solutions can be structured around the requirements of developers and projects.

Technology is another key component of the firm’s investment process. Its proprietary Arbour Intelligence Management System (AIMS) supports underwriting and ongoing project monitoring by tracking metrics including sales velocity, construction costs, approval timelines and escrow discipline. Mehta said the system is designed to identify potential problems early and bring greater consistency to investment decisions and reporting.

Measured expansion, long-term approach

Looking ahead, Arbour plans to strengthen its presence in high-conviction markets and deepen relationships with IFAs, family offices and institutional investors. Mehta said expansion would remain measured, with each new market or mandate subject to the same underwriting and governance standards.

For 2026 and beyond, he expects formalisation through RERA, GST and REITs, along with demand for alternative investments, to support the sector’s institutionalisation. However, he cautioned investors against focusing solely on headline returns.

“we take a multi-year view rather than a short-term trading approach, diversify across strategies and markets; and weigh a manager's discipline and track record alongside headline return targets, with a focus on risk –adjusted returns,” he said.