Hormuz power play: Iran's proposed 7% shipping toll could unlock $100 billion a year 

The Strait of Hormuz has long been one of the world's most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints. Now, reports suggest Iran wants to transform it into one of the planet's most lucrative revenue streams by charging commercial vessels a transit fee worth up to 7% of the value of their cargo — a move that could reshape global shipping economics and intensify geopolitical tensions in West Asia. 

According to a Reuters report, Iran and Oman are discussing an agreement that would give Tehran greater control over shipping traffic entering and exiting the Gulf. Under the proposal, vessels would pass through Iranian territorial waters on both inbound and outbound journeys, potentially allowing Tehran to collect transit charges. 

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told Iran's IRNA news agency that ships would navigate through Iranian territorial waters in both directions. He also said Tehran had received indications that the United States was prepared to return to understandings outlined in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June. 

What toll is Iran seeking? 

According to various reports, Iran is pushing for a transit fee of between 5% and 7% of the cargo's value, while Oman has reportedly proposed a lower 3% toll. 

Although no agreement has been finalised, the proposal has drawn attention because of the Strait's outsized role in global energy trade. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, making any change in transit rules significant for energy markets, insurers and shipping companies. 

Why the numbers matter 

Estimates suggest that if Iran were able to levy a 7% toll on all commercial traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz under pre-conflict shipping volumes, it could generate around $385 million per day, translating into more than $100 billion annually. 

The economics become even more striking when viewed at the level of an individual oil tanker. 

A fully loaded Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) carrying around 2 million barrels of crude oil could reportedly generate approximately $11 million in toll revenue for Iran under a 7% fee structure. 

Because collecting a transit charge requires relatively little operating expenditure compared with producing or exporting oil, analysts argue that nearly all of the revenue would translate into profit. 

At those levels, annual earnings from Hormuz tolls could rival the yearly net income reported by some of the world's largest corporations, including major technology firms and energy giants. It would also dwarf the historic peak annual toll revenues generated by the Suez Canal. 

For Iran, such income would amount to more than one-third of the country's gross domestic product — without increasing oil production. 

Shipping patterns in Strait of Hormuz 

While discussions over the proposed toll continue, maritime traffic data indicates that shipping behaviour around the region is already evolving. 

According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, Strait of Hormuz crossings fell to just eight vessels on August 4, with most ships exiting the Middle East Gulf and traffic increasingly concentrated around the Iranian Unilateral Scheme. 

In contrast, Bab el-Mandeb crossings climbed to 34, although analysts flagged several emerging risks. These included four "dark" transits in which vessels reduced or switched off tracking signals, continued activity involving sanctioned and shadow-fleet ships, and a confirmed attack on the vessel Minoan Pioneer. 

Kpler noted that for shipping operators, the biggest concern is no longer simply the number of vessels passing through these chokepoints. Instead, route transparency, vessel behaviour and the possibility of further disruptions have become the primary indicators of operational risk.